Public research record
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When risk rises or the stress passes, we send you the call before the market opens. We also report the moments when markets panic and the classifier's risk state does not change.
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One square per live brief. Green is right, red is wrong, and white is unscored.
Reconstructed history is excluded from this score.
What enters the score
Each live brief counts once, by its headline call. Individual calls inside the same brief do not add to the denominator.
The complete archive contains 15 briefs.
What the words mean +
Five risk states
Context labels, not additional risk states
Each brief shows what the market feared, what Mindforge said, and what the S&P 500 did next.
2026-10-19 volatility episode
Oil infrastructure shock
Iran shock
February 2026 deleveraging selloff
Greenland tariff threat
AI valuation selloff
Regional bank credit scare
China tariff threat
Weak July payrolls report
Israel-Iran strikes
May 2025 volatility episode
Liberation Day tariff crash
Canada and Mexico tariff shock
Historical record, not a projection. Percent moves are S&P 500 closes against the call's prior-session close, before trading costs.
Every Event Risk Brief is marked on the S&P 500 from 2025 to now.
Scroll the chart sideways and tap a ▲ or a green ◆ (the recovery) to jump to that brief; the colored bands show the system's state on each day.
Event Risk Briefs show the calls that mattered. The Market Risk Classifier still produces a risk state every trading day.
Next Event Risk Brief
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We send one only when the risk state changes or a sharp market move tests the current call.
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Research use only. Not investment advice.
Historical reports are history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods