Canada and Mexico tariff shock · Event Risk Brief · Mar 4, 2025
SHOCK escalation on Mar 6, 2025.
Prior close Mar 5, 2025
✓ Escalation confirmed
The SHOCK escalation was confirmed: the S&P 500 fell 3% over 5 days within 5 trading days, the system's hit rule for this state.
- Episode
- Closed
- Closed on
- 2025-03-18
- Grade
- Graded
- Inputs through
- 2025-03-05 close
Episode name and source +
February to March 2025 · Named after coverage by Yahoo Finance ↗
See each call in order.
The system escalated from STABLE before the open.
The system returned to STABLE from SHOCK before the open.
The escalation
The system held STABLE on Mar 4, 2025 while the S&P 500 fell. It escalated to SHOCK on Mar 6, 2025. It returned to STABLE on Mar 11, 2025.
How the market moved.
23 sessions · VIX and S&P 500 closes
Scroll the chart sideways to follow the whole thread.
How this brief was scored
The system returns to STABLE.
The system escalates to a more severe state (deeper).
Still elevated after 10 sessions (extended).
Classification uses the prior session close (2025-03-05).
Mindforge · Brief Mar 4, 2025 · 2025-03-06
Historical Precedent
13 MATCHES SINCE 2012Today against the matches
Indexed to 100 at the matched morning
SOLID IS TODAY'S PATH · DASHED IS THE MEDIAN MATCHED PATH
SOLID IS TODAY'S PATH · DASHED IS THE MEDIAN MATCHED PATH
Historical pattern, not a forecast.
Historical market classification outcomes
Query and matching detailsShow +Hide −
Matched mornings
first morning in SHOCK (entered from a less severe state)
3,313 sessions since 2012 · Median paths from 13 matches
Outcome percentages
- 0%The system escalated further
- 54%The system resolved to STABLE
- 46%The episode extended
History, not a forecast · Mindforge · Brief Mar 4, 2025 · 2025-03-06
Event Log
10 SESSIONS
| DATE | DAY | CLASSIFICATION | VIX | VIX 5D | S&P 500 | SPX 5D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-04 | 1 | STABLE | 22.78 | +20.0% | 5,849.72 | -2.2% |
| 2025-03-05 | 2 | STABLE | 23.51 | +21.0% | 5,778.15 | -3.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | 3 | SHOCK | 21.93 | +14.8% | 5,842.63 | -1.9% |
| 2025-03-07 | 4 | SHOCK | 24.87 | +17.7% | 5,738.52 | -2.1% |
| 2025-03-10 | 5 | SHOCK | 23.37 | +19.1% | 5,770.20 | -3.1% |
| 2025-03-11 | 6 | STABLE | 27.86 | +22.3% | 5,614.56 | -4.0% |
| 2025-03-12 | 7 | STABLE | 26.92 | +14.5% | 5,572.07 | -3.6% |
| 2025-03-13 | 8 | STABLE | 24.23 | +10.5% | 5,599.30 | -4.2% |
| 2025-03-14 | 9 | STABLE | 24.66 | -0.8% | 5,521.52 | -3.8% |
| 2025-03-17 | 10 | STABLE | 21.77 | -6.8% | 5,638.94 | -2.3% |
- Day
- 1
- VIX
- 22.78
- VIX 5d
- +20.0%
- S&P 500
- 5,849.72
- SPX 5d
- -2.2%
- Day
- 2
- VIX
- 23.51
- VIX 5d
- +21.0%
- S&P 500
- 5,778.15
- SPX 5d
- -3.0%
- Day
- 3
- VIX
- 21.93
- VIX 5d
- +14.8%
- S&P 500
- 5,842.63
- SPX 5d
- -1.9%
- Day
- 4
- VIX
- 24.87
- VIX 5d
- +17.7%
- S&P 500
- 5,738.52
- SPX 5d
- -2.1%
- Day
- 5
- VIX
- 23.37
- VIX 5d
- +19.1%
- S&P 500
- 5,770.20
- SPX 5d
- -3.1%
- Day
- 6
- VIX
- 27.86
- VIX 5d
- +22.3%
- S&P 500
- 5,614.56
- SPX 5d
- -4.0%
- Day
- 7
- VIX
- 26.92
- VIX 5d
- +14.5%
- S&P 500
- 5,572.07
- SPX 5d
- -3.6%
- Day
- 8
- VIX
- 24.23
- VIX 5d
- +10.5%
- S&P 500
- 5,599.30
- SPX 5d
- -4.2%
- Day
- 9
- VIX
- 24.66
- VIX 5d
- -0.8%
- S&P 500
- 5,521.52
- SPX 5d
- -3.8%
- Day
- 10
- VIX
- 21.77
- VIX 5d
- -6.8%
- S&P 500
- 5,638.94
- SPX 5d
- -2.3%
Sector Implications
MRC-CONDITIONED · 2012-2026
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS
CYCLICAL BASKET
+1.9pp
XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY
DEFENSIVE BASKET
-0.5pp
XLV · XLP · XLU
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)
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