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Market Risk Classifier · Event Risk Brief · 2025-002

Concluded · 2025-03-182025-03-17 · inputs through 2025-03-14 closeLive report →
What happened · scored by what the market did next
✓ Escalated within days

The system issued a more severe classification within 10 trading sessions — the hold ended with an escalation, not a miss.

The Call

STABLE (WATCH) was in effect this morning. The S&P 500 was down 5.3% over 10 sessions.

Stocks have fallen hard over two weeks; the system classifies it as not a regime change.

RISK SHAPE
WHIPSAW
WHIPSAWSHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISIS
WHAT THE SYSTEM DID
HELD THROUGH IT
the system classifying STABLE while the S&P 500 falls 4%+ over 10 sessions
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)
STABLESHOCKSTABLETRIGGER WINDOW · LAST 10 SESSIONS27.914.8VIX6,1445,522S&P02/1402/2803/14
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
21.77
5-SESSION CHANGE -6.8%
S&P 500
5,638.94
5-SESSION CHANGE -2.3%
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 3 CONDITIONS+
(a) The system escalates to a more severe state (escalated).(b) The S&P 500's 10-session change recovers above −4% with no escalation (the scare faded).(c) No escalation within 10 sessions and the S&P 500 falls 5%+ within 20 sessions (the call was wrong).

Classification uses the prior session close (2025-03-14).

Historical Precedent21 MATCHES SINCE 2012
QUERY: risk shape == STABLE (WATCH) AND S&P 10-session change <= -4% · 3,320 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 21 MATCHES
MEDIAN PATH · 21 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING
TRIGGER WINDOWTHE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION10074VIX104.9100.0S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

Median forward path of all 21 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

90%
THE SYSTEM CLASSIFIED STABLE CORRECTLY OR ESCALATED WITHIN DAYS · 19 OF 21 MATCHES
10%
THE SYSTEM WAS WRONG · CLASSIFIED STABLE THROUGH A 5%+ S&P 500 FALL · 2 MORNINGS: 2018-11 · 2022-04
HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES
71%
19%
10%
15 OF 21The scare faded. The system classified STABLE and no hard fall followed
4 OF 21The system escalated within days. It issued a more severe classification within 10 trading sessions
2 OF 21The system was wrong. It classified STABLE while the S&P 500 fell 5% or more within 20 sessions: 2018-11 · 2022-04
↳ CLOSEST MATCHES TO TODAY · PRIOR-CLOSE VIX < 22 (TODAY: 21.77) · 11 OF THE 21+
9 OF 11The scare faded.
2 OF 11The system escalated within days.
0 OF 11The system was wrong.

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log10 SESSIONS
2025-03-04 · DAY 1 · STABLE · VIX 22.78 (+20.0%) · SPX 5,849.72 (-2.2%)
2025-03-05 · DAY 2 · STABLE · VIX 23.51 (+21.0%) · SPX 5,778.15 (-3.0%)
2025-03-06 · DAY 3 · SHOCK · VIX 21.93 (+14.8%) · SPX 5,842.63 (-1.9%)
2025-03-07 · DAY 4 · SHOCK · VIX 24.87 (+17.7%) · SPX 5,738.52 (-2.1%)
2025-03-10 · DAY 5 · SHOCK · VIX 23.37 (+19.1%) · SPX 5,770.20 (-3.1%)
2025-03-11 · DAY 6 · STABLE · VIX 27.86 (+22.3%) · SPX 5,614.56 (-4.0%)
2025-03-12 · DAY 7 · STABLE · VIX 26.92 (+14.5%) · SPX 5,572.07 (-3.6%)
2025-03-13 · DAY 8 · STABLE · VIX 24.23 (+10.5%) · SPX 5,599.30 (-4.2%)
2025-03-14 · DAY 9 · STABLE · VIX 24.66 (-0.8%) · SPX 5,521.52 (-3.8%)
2025-03-17 · DAY 10 · STABLE · VIX 21.77 (-6.8%) · SPX 5,638.94 (-2.3%)
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy
+2.9pp
XLFFinancials
+2.7pp
XLBMaterials
+1.7pp
XLKTechnology
+1.7pp
XLIIndustrials
+1.2pp
XLYConsumer Disc.
+0.9pp
XLUUtilities
+0.6pp
XLPStaples
-0.6pp
XLVHealthcare
-1.5pp
Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record

Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief 2025-002 | Mindforge | Mindforge