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Market Risk Classifier · Event Risk Brief · 2025-009

Concluded · 2025-11-282025-11-28 · inputs through 2025-11-26 closeLive report →
What happened · scored by what the market did next
✓ Stable held

The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.

The Call

STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a ELEVATED episode before the open.

The system returned to Stable this morning, ending a Elevated episode.

RISK SHAPE
STABLE
STABLESHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISIS
WHAT THE SYSTEM DID
STOOD DOWN
the system returning to Stable after a non-Stable episode
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)
STABLEELEVATED26.416.9VIX6,8526,539S&P10/3011/1211/26
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
17.19
5-SESSION CHANGE -27.3%
S&P 500
6,812.61
5-SESSION CHANGE +2.6%
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+
(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

Classification uses the prior session close (2025-11-26).

Historical Precedent31 MATCHES SINCE 2012
QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,498 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 31 MATCHES
MEDIAN PATH · 31 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING
THE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION11787VIX101.797.6S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

Median forward path of all 31 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 31 MATCHES
90%
10%
28 OF 31Stable held. The system did not re-escalate within 10 sessions
3 OF 31The system re-escalated. It left Stable again within 10 trading sessions

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log8 SESSIONS
2025-11-18 · DAY 1 · STABLE · VIX 22.38 (+27.2%) · SPX 6,672.41 (-2.3%)
2025-11-19 · DAY 2 · STABLE · VIX 24.69 (+42.9%) · SPX 6,617.32 (-3.3%)
2025-11-20 · DAY 3 · ELEVATED · VIX 23.66 (+35.1%) · SPX 6,642.16 (-3.0%)
2025-11-21 · DAY 4 · ELEVATED · VIX 26.42 (+32.1%) · SPX 6,538.76 (-2.9%)
2025-11-24 · DAY 5 · ELEVATED · VIX 23.43 (+18.2%) · SPX 6,602.99 (-1.9%)
2025-11-25 · DAY 6 · ELEVATED · VIX 20.52 (-8.3%) · SPX 6,705.12 (+0.5%)
2025-11-26 · DAY 7 · ELEVATED · VIX 18.56 (-24.8%) · SPX 6,765.88 (+2.2%)
2025-11-28 · DAY 8 · STABLE · VIX 17.19 (-27.3%) · SPX 6,812.61 (+2.6%)
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy
+2.9pp
XLFFinancials
+2.7pp
XLBMaterials
+1.7pp
XLKTechnology
+1.7pp
XLIIndustrials
+1.2pp
XLYConsumer Disc.
+0.9pp
XLUUtilities
+0.6pp
XLPStaples
-0.6pp
XLVHealthcare
-1.5pp
Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record

Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief 2025-009 | Mindforge | Mindforge