Event Risk Brief · 2025-009
AI valuation selloff
November 2025 · Named after coverage by Fortune ↗
- Status
- Concluded
- Concluded
- 2025-11-28
- Inputs through
- 2025-11-26 close
The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.
STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a ELEVATED episode before the open.
The system returned to STABLE that morning, ending a ELEVATED episode.
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+
Classification uses the prior session close (2025-11-26).
Mindforge · Brief 2025-009 · 2025-11-28
31 matches since 2012The query +Hide −
Median forward path of all 31 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.
History, not a forecast · Mindforge · Brief 2025-009 · 2025-11-28
Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant
- Day
- 1
- VIX
- 22.38
- VIX 5d
- +27.2%
- S&P 500
- 6,672.41
- SPX 5d
- -2.3%
- Day
- 2
- VIX
- 24.69
- VIX 5d
- +42.9%
- S&P 500
- 6,617.32
- SPX 5d
- -3.3%
- Day
- 3
- VIX
- 23.66
- VIX 5d
- +35.1%
- S&P 500
- 6,642.16
- SPX 5d
- -3.0%
- Day
- 4
- VIX
- 26.42
- VIX 5d
- +32.1%
- S&P 500
- 6,538.76
- SPX 5d
- -2.9%
- Day
- 5
- VIX
- 23.43
- VIX 5d
- +18.2%
- S&P 500
- 6,602.99
- SPX 5d
- -1.9%
- Day
- 6
- VIX
- 20.52
- VIX 5d
- -8.3%
- S&P 500
- 6,705.12
- SPX 5d
- +0.5%
- Day
- 7
- VIX
- 18.56
- VIX 5d
- -24.8%
- S&P 500
- 6,765.88
- SPX 5d
- +2.2%
- Day
- 8
- VIX
- 17.19
- VIX 5d
- -27.3%
- S&P 500
- 6,812.61
- SPX 5d
- +2.6%
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS
CYCLICAL BASKET
+1.9pp
XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY
DEFENSIVE BASKET
-0.5pp
XLV · XLP · XLU
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS
CYCLICAL BASKET
+1.9pp
XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY
DEFENSIVE BASKET
-0.5pp
XLV · XLP · XLU
10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)
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Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record
Validation & Methods →Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods