Question 01
Is the risk real?
Mindforge looks for a change in the risk environment, not just falling prices.
Public research record
Get the call before the outcome.
When risk rises or the stress passes, we send you the call before the market opens. We also report the moments when markets panic and the classifier's risk state does not change.
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Concluded2026-005
Oil infrastructure shock
✓ The scare fadedWHIPSAW
Volatility jumped that week. The underlying risk state did not change.
Opened
2026-06-10
Concluded
2026-06-15
VIX · 5 sessions
+26.2%
S&P 500 · 5 sessions
-2.5%
Why this exists
The hard part is deciding what the fear means.
A selloff, a volatility spike, and a bad headline can all look alarming. The classifier asks whether the risk has changed, whether the panic is overstated, and when the stress has passed.
Question 02
Is the panic overstated?
A sharp market move can happen while the classifier still sees lower risk.
Question 03
Has the stress passed?
The classifier may return to STABLE before markets look normal again.
How it works
The classifier runs every trading day. We send a brief only when the call matters.
The Market Risk Classifier produces the daily risk state. Event Risk Briefs explain what changed and why it matters.
- 01
Daily call
The Market Risk Classifier sets the risk state before the market opens.
- 02
Something changes
Risk rises, stability returns, or the market moves against the call.
- 03
Brief sent
Mindforge sends the reasoning before the market opens.
- 04
Outcome recorded
The call stays in the archive with what happened next.
Recovery timing
Mindforge also reports when the stress has passed.
Mindforge also reports when a stress episode returns to STABLE. The March 2026 brief shows that recovery call in context.
Recovery example · Iran shockRecorded evidence
One episode
One episode can contain several calls.
The April 2025 tariff shock moved from SHOCK to CRISIS, then back through SHIFTING to RESOLVED. The archive keeps each call in order.
SHOCK → CRISIS → SHIFTING → RESOLVED
Mindforge raised the risk state as the episode worsened, then reported the return to STABLE.
April 2025 tariff shockRecorded evidence
Inside each brief
Here is what the reader receives.
This concluded April 2025 brief shows the original call, the evidence available that morning, and the outcome added after the episode ended.
Event Risk Brief2025-003
Concluded example · published 2025-04-01The call
CRISIS
CRISIS is now in effect. The system escalated from SHOCK before the open.
The system escalated to Crisis this morning, from Shock.
VIX
30.02
+60.6% · 5 sessions
S&P 500
5,396.52
-5.2% · 5 sessions
Market tape before the callVIX orange · S&P white
Historical precedent
9 matched mornings since 2012
3,334 sessions scanned
Median path · indexed to 100 on matched morning
22%
The system resolved to Stable
It returned to Stable within 10 trading sessions
78%
The episode extended
The system was still in an elevated state after 10 sessions
What happened
✓ Confirmed
Closed 2025-05-01
The CRISIS escalation was confirmed: VIX reached 35 within 10 trading days, the system's hit rule for this state.
Scored by the same pre-registered rules used for this report's historical precedents.
When we send a brief
Most days, we send nothing.
That changes only when:
Risk rises
The classifier moves from STABLE to a higher-risk state.
OR
Stability returns
The classifier returns to STABLE after an elevated-risk episode.
OR
Mindforge disagrees with the market
The market moves sharply, but the classifier stays at a lower-risk state.
The public record
The call comes first. The outcome comes later.
Mindforge publishes the call first. We add the outcome after the episode ends, and we keep the result whether the call held or failed.
01Published before the outcome
02Updated until the episode ends
03The result stays either way
Event Risk Brief Archive
The full record, one call at a time.
Newest episodes come first. Each call keeps its original date and its place in the sequence.
Oil infrastructure shock
June 2026
WHIPSAW
- JUN 08
- JUN 10WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Iran shock
March 2026
SHIFTINGELEVATEDSHIFTINGSHOCKSHIFTINGRESOLVED
- MAR 03SHIFTING
Mindforge moved off STABLE before the open.
- MAR 06ELEVATED
Risk conditions strengthened.
- MAR 13SHIFTING
Risk conditions eased but remained above STABLE.
- MAR 20SHOCK
Mindforge escalated again as stress intensified.
- MAR 25SHIFTING
Risk conditions eased but remained above STABLE.
- MAR 31RESOLVED
Mindforge returned to STABLE.
February 2026 deleveraging selloff
February 2026
WHIPSAW
- FEB 06WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Greenland tariff threat
January 2026
WHIPSAW
- JAN 21WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
AI valuation selloff
November 2025
ELEVATEDRESOLVED
- NOV 20ELEVATED
Mindforge moved from STABLE to ELEVATED before the open.
- NOV 28RESOLVED
Mindforge returned to STABLE.
Regional bank credit scare
October 2025
WHIPSAW
- OCT 16WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
China tariff threat
October 2025
WHIPSAW
- OCT 13WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Weak July payrolls report
August 2025
WHIPSAW
- AUG 04WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Israel-Iran strikes
June 2025
WHIPSAW
- JUN 18WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
May 2025 volatility episode
May 2025
WHIPSAW
- MAY 27WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Liberation Day tariff crash
April 2025
SHOCKCRISISSHIFTINGRESOLVED
- APR 03SHOCK
Mindforge moved from STABLE to SHOCK before the open.
- APR 04CRISIS
Mindforge escalated again as stress intensified.
- APR 15SHIFTING
Risk conditions eased but remained above STABLE.
- MAY 01RESOLVED
Mindforge returned to STABLE.
Canada and Mexico tariff shock
February to March 2025
WHIPSAW
- FEB 25
- MAR 04WHIPSAW
The market moved sharply while Mindforge held STABLE.
Event Risk Briefs show the calls that mattered. The Market Risk Classifier still produces a risk state every trading day.
Next Event Risk Brief
Receive the next Event Risk Brief before the market opens.
We send one only when the risk state changes or a sharp market move tests the current call.
No daily emails. No newsletter. No sales sequence.
Research use only. Not investment advice.
Historical reports are history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods