Mindforge Intelligence

Event Risk Brief · 2026-003

Iran shock

March 2026 · Named after coverage by FinancialContent ↗

Status: Concluded
Concluded: 2026-03-31
Inputs through: 2026-03-30 close

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What happened · scored by what the market did next

✓ Stable held

The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.

The Call

STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.

The system returned to STABLE that morning, ending a SHIFTING episode.

RISK STATE

STABLE

STABLE SHIFTING ELEVATED SHOCK CRISIS

WHAT THE SYSTEM DID

STOOD DOWN

the system returning to Stable after a non-Stable episode

LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)

VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

30.61

5-SESSION CHANGE +17.1%

S&P 500

6,343.72

5-SESSION CHANGE -3.6%

CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+

(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS

(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

Classification uses the prior session close (2026-03-30).

Mindforge · Brief 2026-003 · 2026-03-31

Historical Precedent32 MATCHES SINCE 2012

32 matches since 2012The query +

QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,581 SESSIONS SINCE 2012

QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,581 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 32 MATCHES

MEDIAN PATH · 32 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING

Median forward path of all 32 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 32 MATCHES

91%

29 OF 32Stable held. The system did not re-escalate within 10 sessions

3 OF 32The system re-escalated. It left Stable again within 10 trading sessions

History, not a forecast · Mindforge · Brief 2026-003 · 2026-03-31

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log21 SESSIONS

DATEDAYCLASSIFICATIONVIXVIX 5DS&P 500SPX 5D

2026-03-031SHIFTING21.44+2.0%6,881.62+0.6%

2026-03-03SHIFTING

Day: 1
VIX: 21.44
VIX 5d: +2.0%
S&P 500: 6,881.62
SPX 5d: +0.6%

2026-03-042SHIFTING23.57+20.6%6,816.63-1.1%

2026-03-04SHIFTING

Day: 2
VIX: 23.57
VIX 5d: +20.6%
S&P 500: 6,816.63
SPX 5d: -1.1%

2026-03-053SHIFTING21.15+18.0%6,869.50-1.1%

2026-03-05SHIFTING

Day: 3
VIX: 21.15
VIX 5d: +18.0%
S&P 500: 6,869.50
SPX 5d: -1.1%

2026-03-064ELEVATED23.75+27.5%6,830.71-1.1%

2026-03-06ELEVATED

Day: 4
VIX: 23.75
VIX 5d: +27.5%
S&P 500: 6,830.71
SPX 5d: -1.1%

2026-03-095ELEVATED29.49+48.5%6,740.02-2.0%

2026-03-09ELEVATED

Day: 5
VIX: 29.49
VIX 5d: +48.5%
S&P 500: 6,740.02
SPX 5d: -2.0%

2026-03-106ELEVATED25.50+18.9%6,795.99-1.2%

2026-03-10ELEVATED

Day: 6
VIX: 25.50
VIX 5d: +18.9%
S&P 500: 6,795.99
SPX 5d: -1.2%

2026-03-117ELEVATED24.93+5.8%6,781.48-0.5%

2026-03-11ELEVATED

Day: 7
VIX: 24.93
VIX 5d: +5.8%
S&P 500: 6,781.48
SPX 5d: -0.5%

2026-03-128ELEVATED24.23+14.6%6,775.80-1.4%

2026-03-12ELEVATED

Day: 8
VIX: 24.23
VIX 5d: +14.6%
S&P 500: 6,775.80
SPX 5d: -1.4%

2026-03-139SHIFTING27.29+14.9%6,672.62-2.3%

2026-03-13SHIFTING

Day: 9
VIX: 27.29
VIX 5d: +14.9%
S&P 500: 6,672.62
SPX 5d: -2.3%

2026-03-1610SHIFTING27.19-7.8%6,632.19-1.6%

2026-03-16SHIFTING

Day: 10
VIX: 27.19
VIX 5d: -7.8%
S&P 500: 6,632.19
SPX 5d: -1.6%

2026-03-1711SHIFTING23.51-7.8%6,699.38-1.4%

2026-03-17SHIFTING

Day: 11
VIX: 23.51
VIX 5d: -7.8%
S&P 500: 6,699.38
SPX 5d: -1.4%

2026-03-1812SHIFTING22.37-10.3%6,716.09-1.0%

2026-03-18SHIFTING

Day: 12
VIX: 22.37
VIX 5d: -10.3%
S&P 500: 6,716.09
SPX 5d: -1.0%

2026-03-1913SHIFTING25.09+3.5%6,624.70-2.2%

2026-03-19SHIFTING

Day: 13
VIX: 25.09
VIX 5d: +3.5%
S&P 500: 6,624.70
SPX 5d: -2.2%

2026-03-2014SHOCK24.06-11.8%6,606.49-1.0%

2026-03-20SHOCK

Day: 14
VIX: 24.06
VIX 5d: -11.8%
S&P 500: 6,606.49
SPX 5d: -1.0%

2026-03-2315SHOCK26.78-1.5%6,506.48-1.9%

2026-03-23SHOCK

Day: 15
VIX: 26.78
VIX 5d: -1.5%
S&P 500: 6,506.48
SPX 5d: -1.9%

2026-03-2416SHOCK26.15+11.2%6,581.00-1.8%

2026-03-24SHOCK

Day: 16
VIX: 26.15
VIX 5d: +11.2%
S&P 500: 6,581.00
SPX 5d: -1.8%

2026-03-2517SHIFTING26.95+20.5%6,556.37-2.4%

2026-03-25SHIFTING

Day: 17
VIX: 26.95
VIX 5d: +20.5%
S&P 500: 6,556.37
SPX 5d: -2.4%

2026-03-2618SHIFTING25.33+1.0%6,591.90-0.5%

2026-03-26SHIFTING

Day: 18
VIX: 25.33
VIX 5d: +1.0%
S&P 500: 6,591.90
SPX 5d: -0.5%

2026-03-2719SHIFTING27.44+14.0%6,477.16-2.0%

2026-03-27SHIFTING

Day: 19
VIX: 27.44
VIX 5d: +14.0%
S&P 500: 6,477.16
SPX 5d: -2.0%

2026-03-3020SHIFTING31.05+15.9%6,368.85-2.1%

2026-03-30SHIFTING

Day: 20
VIX: 31.05
VIX 5d: +15.9%
S&P 500: 6,368.85
SPX 5d: -2.1%

2026-03-3121STABLE30.61+17.1%6,343.72-3.6%

2026-03-31STABLE

Day: 21
VIX: 30.61
VIX 5d: +17.1%
S&P 500: 6,343.72
SPX 5d: -3.6%

Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy

+2.9pp

XLFFinancials

+2.7pp

XLBMaterials

+1.7pp

XLKTechnology

+1.7pp

XLIIndustrials

+1.2pp

XLYConsumer Disc.

+0.9pp

XLUUtilities

+0.6pp

XLPStaples

-0.6pp

XLVHealthcare

-1.5pp

Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.

Sector ImplicationsMRC-CONDITIONED · 2012-2026

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy

+2.9pp

XLFFinancials

+2.7pp

XLBMaterials

+1.7pp

XLKTechnology

+1.7pp

XLIIndustrials

+1.2pp

XLYConsumer Disc.

+0.9pp

XLUUtilities

+0.6pp

XLPStaples

-0.6pp

XLVHealthcare

-1.5pp

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Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods