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Market Risk Classifier · Event Risk Brief · 2026-003

Concluded · 2026-03-312026-03-31 · inputs through 2026-03-30 closeLive report →
What happened · scored by what the market did next
✓ Stable held

The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.

The Call

STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.

The system returned to Stable this morning, ending a Shifting episode.

RISK SHAPE
STABLE
STABLESHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISIS
WHAT THE SYSTEM DID
STOOD DOWN
the system returning to Stable after a non-Stable episode
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)
SHIFTINGELEVATEDSHIFTINGSHOCKSHIFTING31.121.1VIX6,8706,344S&P03/0303/1603/30
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
30.61
5-SESSION CHANGE +17.1%
S&P 500
6,343.72
5-SESSION CHANGE -3.6%
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+
(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

Classification uses the prior session close (2026-03-30).

Historical Precedent32 MATCHES SINCE 2012
QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,581 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 32 MATCHES
MEDIAN PATH · 32 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING
THE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION11688VIX101.698.0S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

Median forward path of all 32 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 32 MATCHES
91%
9%
29 OF 32Stable held. The system did not re-escalate within 10 sessions
3 OF 32The system re-escalated. It left Stable again within 10 trading sessions

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log21 SESSIONS
2026-03-03 · DAY 1 · SHIFTING · VIX 21.44 (+2.0%) · SPX 6,881.62 (+0.6%)
2026-03-04 · DAY 2 · SHIFTING · VIX 23.57 (+20.6%) · SPX 6,816.63 (-1.1%)
2026-03-05 · DAY 3 · SHIFTING · VIX 21.15 (+18.0%) · SPX 6,869.50 (-1.1%)
2026-03-06 · DAY 4 · ELEVATED · VIX 23.75 (+27.5%) · SPX 6,830.71 (-1.1%)
2026-03-09 · DAY 5 · ELEVATED · VIX 29.49 (+48.5%) · SPX 6,740.02 (-2.0%)
2026-03-10 · DAY 6 · ELEVATED · VIX 25.50 (+18.9%) · SPX 6,795.99 (-1.2%)
2026-03-11 · DAY 7 · ELEVATED · VIX 24.93 (+5.8%) · SPX 6,781.48 (-0.5%)
2026-03-12 · DAY 8 · ELEVATED · VIX 24.23 (+14.6%) · SPX 6,775.80 (-1.4%)
2026-03-13 · DAY 9 · SHIFTING · VIX 27.29 (+14.9%) · SPX 6,672.62 (-2.3%)
2026-03-16 · DAY 10 · SHIFTING · VIX 27.19 (-7.8%) · SPX 6,632.19 (-1.6%)
2026-03-17 · DAY 11 · SHIFTING · VIX 23.51 (-7.8%) · SPX 6,699.38 (-1.4%)
2026-03-18 · DAY 12 · SHIFTING · VIX 22.37 (-10.3%) · SPX 6,716.09 (-1.0%)
2026-03-19 · DAY 13 · SHIFTING · VIX 25.09 (+3.5%) · SPX 6,624.70 (-2.2%)
2026-03-20 · DAY 14 · SHOCK · VIX 24.06 (-11.8%) · SPX 6,606.49 (-1.0%)
2026-03-23 · DAY 15 · SHOCK · VIX 26.78 (-1.5%) · SPX 6,506.48 (-1.9%)
2026-03-24 · DAY 16 · SHOCK · VIX 26.15 (+11.2%) · SPX 6,581.00 (-1.8%)
2026-03-25 · DAY 17 · SHIFTING · VIX 26.95 (+20.5%) · SPX 6,556.37 (-2.4%)
2026-03-26 · DAY 18 · SHIFTING · VIX 25.33 (+1.0%) · SPX 6,591.90 (-0.5%)
2026-03-27 · DAY 19 · SHIFTING · VIX 27.44 (+14.0%) · SPX 6,477.16 (-2.0%)
2026-03-30 · DAY 20 · SHIFTING · VIX 31.05 (+15.9%) · SPX 6,368.85 (-2.1%)
2026-03-31 · DAY 21 · STABLE · VIX 30.61 (+17.1%) · SPX 6,343.72 (-3.6%)
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy
+2.9pp
XLFFinancials
+2.7pp
XLBMaterials
+1.7pp
XLKTechnology
+1.7pp
XLIIndustrials
+1.2pp
XLYConsumer Disc.
+0.9pp
XLUUtilities
+0.6pp
XLPStaples
-0.6pp
XLVHealthcare
-1.5pp
Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record

Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief 2026-003 | Mindforge | Mindforge