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Market Risk Classifier · Event Risk Brief · 2025-003

Concluded · 2025-05-012025-05-01 · inputs through 2025-04-30 closeLive report →
What happened · scored by what the market did next
✓ Stable held

The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.

The Call

STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.

The system returned to Stable this morning, ending a Shifting episode.

RISK SHAPE
STABLE
STABLESHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISIS
WHAT THE SYSTEM DID
STOOD DOWN
the system returning to Stable after a non-Stable episode
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)
STABLESHOCKCRISISSHIFTING52.321.5VIX5,6714,983S&P04/0204/1504/30
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
24.70
5-SESSION CHANGE -13.2%
S&P 500
5,569.06
5-SESSION CHANGE +3.6%
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+
(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

Classification uses the prior session close (2025-04-30).

Historical Precedent30 MATCHES SINCE 2012
QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,352 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 30 MATCHES
MEDIAN PATH · 30 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING
THE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION11888VIX101.697.5S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

Median forward path of all 30 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 30 MATCHES
90%
10%
27 OF 30Stable held. The system did not re-escalate within 10 sessions
3 OF 30The system re-escalated. It left Stable again within 10 trading sessions

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log22 SESSIONS
2025-04-01 · DAY 1 · STABLE · VIX 22.28 (+27.5%) · SPX 5,611.85 (-2.7%)
2025-04-02 · DAY 2 · STABLE · VIX 21.77 (+26.9%) · SPX 5,633.07 (-2.5%)
2025-04-03 · DAY 3 · SHOCK · VIX 21.51 (+17.3%) · SPX 5,670.97 (-0.7%)
2025-04-04 · DAY 4 · CRISIS · VIX 30.02 (+60.6%) · SPX 5,396.52 (-5.2%)
2025-04-07 · DAY 5 · CRISIS · VIX 45.31 (+109.3%) · SPX 5,074.08 (-9.1%)
2025-04-08 · DAY 6 · CRISIS · VIX 46.98 (+110.9%) · SPX 5,062.25 (-9.8%)
2025-04-09 · DAY 7 · CRISIS · VIX 52.33 (+140.4%) · SPX 4,982.77 (-11.5%)
2025-04-10 · DAY 8 · CRISIS · VIX 33.62 (+56.3%) · SPX 5,456.90 (-3.8%)
2025-04-11 · DAY 9 · CRISIS · VIX 40.72 (+35.6%) · SPX 5,268.05 (-2.4%)
2025-04-14 · DAY 10 · CRISIS · VIX 37.56 (-17.1%) · SPX 5,363.36 (+5.7%)
2025-04-15 · DAY 11 · SHIFTING · VIX 30.89 (-34.2%) · SPX 5,405.97 (+6.8%)
2025-04-16 · DAY 12 · SHIFTING · VIX 30.12 (-42.4%) · SPX 5,396.63 (+8.3%)
2025-04-17 · DAY 13 · SHIFTING · VIX 32.64 (-2.9%) · SPX 5,275.70 (-3.3%)
2025-04-21 · DAY 14 · SHIFTING · VIX 29.65 (-27.2%) · SPX 5,282.70 (+0.3%)
2025-04-22 · DAY 15 · SHIFTING · VIX 33.82 (-10.0%) · SPX 5,158.20 (-3.8%)
2025-04-23 · DAY 16 · SHIFTING · VIX 30.57 (-1.0%) · SPX 5,287.76 (-2.2%)
2025-04-24 · DAY 17 · SHIFTING · VIX 28.45 (-5.5%) · SPX 5,375.86 (-0.4%)
2025-04-25 · DAY 18 · SHIFTING · VIX 26.47 (-18.9%) · SPX 5,484.77 (+4.0%)
2025-04-28 · DAY 19 · SHIFTING · VIX 24.84 (-16.2%) · SPX 5,525.21 (+4.6%)
2025-04-29 · DAY 20 · SHIFTING · VIX 25.15 (-25.6%) · SPX 5,528.75 (+7.2%)
2025-04-30 · DAY 21 · SHIFTING · VIX 24.17 (-20.9%) · SPX 5,560.83 (+5.2%)
2025-05-01 · DAY 22 · STABLE · VIX 24.70 (-13.2%) · SPX 5,569.06 (+3.6%)
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy
+2.9pp
XLFFinancials
+2.7pp
XLBMaterials
+1.7pp
XLKTechnology
+1.7pp
XLIIndustrials
+1.2pp
XLYConsumer Disc.
+0.9pp
XLUUtilities
+0.6pp
XLPStaples
-0.6pp
XLVHealthcare
-1.5pp
Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record

Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief 2025-003 | Mindforge | Mindforge