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Event Risk Brief · 2025-003

Liberation Day tariff crash

April 2025 · Named after coverage by Investing.com ↗

Status
Concluded
Concluded
2025-05-01
Inputs through
2025-04-30 close
See today’s live report →
What happened · scored by what the market did next
✓ Stable held

The return to Stable held: no re-escalation within 10 sessions.

The Call

STABLE returned to effect. The system stood down from a SHIFTING episode before the open.

The system returned to STABLE that morning, ending a SHIFTING episode.

RISK STATE
STABLE
STABLESHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISIS
WHAT THE SYSTEM DID
STOOD DOWN
the system returning to Stable after a non-Stable episode
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX (ORANGE) + S&P 500 (WHITE)
STABLESHOCKCRISISSHIFTING52.321.5VIX5,6714,983S&P04/0204/1504/30
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
24.70
5-SESSION CHANGE -13.2%
S&P 500
5,569.06
5-SESSION CHANGE +3.6%
CONCLUDES WHEN EITHER · 2 CONDITIONS+
(a) Stable holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).

Classification uses the prior session close (2025-04-30).

Mindforge · Brief 2025-003 · 2025-05-01

Historical Precedent30 MATCHES SINCE 2012
30 matches since 2012The query +
QUERY: first morning back in STABLE after a non-Stable episode · 3,352 SESSIONS SINCE 2012
MEDIAN PATH · 30 MATCHES · INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCHED MORNING
THE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION11888VIX101.697.5S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

Median forward path of all 30 matched mornings. Historical pattern, not a forecast.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 30 MATCHES
90%
10%
27 OF 30Stable held. The system did not re-escalate within 10 sessions
3 OF 30The system re-escalated. It left Stable again within 10 trading sessions

History, not a forecast · Mindforge · Brief 2025-003 · 2025-05-01

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

Event Log22 SESSIONS
2025-04-01STABLE
Day
1
VIX
22.28
VIX 5d
+27.5%
S&P 500
5,611.85
SPX 5d
-2.7%
2025-04-02STABLE
Day
2
VIX
21.77
VIX 5d
+26.9%
S&P 500
5,633.07
SPX 5d
-2.5%
2025-04-03SHOCK
Day
3
VIX
21.51
VIX 5d
+17.3%
S&P 500
5,670.97
SPX 5d
-0.7%
2025-04-04CRISIS
Day
4
VIX
30.02
VIX 5d
+60.6%
S&P 500
5,396.52
SPX 5d
-5.2%
2025-04-07CRISIS
Day
5
VIX
45.31
VIX 5d
+109.3%
S&P 500
5,074.08
SPX 5d
-9.1%
2025-04-08CRISIS
Day
6
VIX
46.98
VIX 5d
+110.9%
S&P 500
5,062.25
SPX 5d
-9.8%
2025-04-09CRISIS
Day
7
VIX
52.33
VIX 5d
+140.4%
S&P 500
4,982.77
SPX 5d
-11.5%
2025-04-10CRISIS
Day
8
VIX
33.62
VIX 5d
+56.3%
S&P 500
5,456.90
SPX 5d
-3.8%
2025-04-11CRISIS
Day
9
VIX
40.72
VIX 5d
+35.6%
S&P 500
5,268.05
SPX 5d
-2.4%
2025-04-14CRISIS
Day
10
VIX
37.56
VIX 5d
-17.1%
S&P 500
5,363.36
SPX 5d
+5.7%
2025-04-15SHIFTING
Day
11
VIX
30.89
VIX 5d
-34.2%
S&P 500
5,405.97
SPX 5d
+6.8%
2025-04-16SHIFTING
Day
12
VIX
30.12
VIX 5d
-42.4%
S&P 500
5,396.63
SPX 5d
+8.3%
2025-04-17SHIFTING
Day
13
VIX
32.64
VIX 5d
-2.9%
S&P 500
5,275.70
SPX 5d
-3.3%
2025-04-21SHIFTING
Day
14
VIX
29.65
VIX 5d
-27.2%
S&P 500
5,282.70
SPX 5d
+0.3%
2025-04-22SHIFTING
Day
15
VIX
33.82
VIX 5d
-10.0%
S&P 500
5,158.20
SPX 5d
-3.8%
2025-04-23SHIFTING
Day
16
VIX
30.57
VIX 5d
-1.0%
S&P 500
5,287.76
SPX 5d
-2.2%
2025-04-24SHIFTING
Day
17
VIX
28.45
VIX 5d
-5.5%
S&P 500
5,375.86
SPX 5d
-0.4%
2025-04-25SHIFTING
Day
18
VIX
26.47
VIX 5d
-18.9%
S&P 500
5,484.77
SPX 5d
+4.0%
2025-04-28SHIFTING
Day
19
VIX
24.84
VIX 5d
-16.2%
S&P 500
5,525.21
SPX 5d
+4.6%
2025-04-29SHIFTING
Day
20
VIX
25.15
VIX 5d
-25.6%
S&P 500
5,528.75
SPX 5d
+7.2%
2025-04-30SHIFTING
Day
21
VIX
24.17
VIX 5d
-20.9%
S&P 500
5,560.83
SPX 5d
+5.2%
2025-05-01STABLE
Day
22
VIX
24.70
VIX 5d
-13.2%
S&P 500
5,569.06
SPX 5d
+3.6%
Sector ImplicationsTAP TO EXPAND +

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN VS STABLE PERIODS · STRESS-CLASSIFIED DAYS

CYCLICAL BASKET

+1.9pp

XLE · XLB · XLF · XLI · XLY

DEFENSIVE BASKET

-0.5pp

XLV · XLP · XLU

10-DAY FORWARD RETURN DIFFERENTIAL BY SECTOR (STRESS VS STABLE)

XLEEnergy
+2.9pp
XLFFinancials
+2.7pp
XLBMaterials
+1.7pp
XLKTechnology
+1.7pp
XLIIndustrials
+1.2pp
XLYConsumer Disc.
+0.9pp
XLUUtilities
+0.6pp
XLPStaples
-0.6pp
XLVHealthcare
-1.5pp
Sector returns measured from the classification date forward. Backtest: 2012-2024, 154 stress-classified days. Out-of-sample: 2025-2026, 24 stress-classified days. Historical analysis, not investment advice.
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Outcome definitions, system methodology, and the full classification record

Validation & Methods →

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods

Event Risk Brief 2025-003 | Mindforge | Mindforge