Market State Detector · Market Situation Report · No. 004 of 2025
A rules-based system that classifies every trading day into one of five market states, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning. About the system →
CALM remains in effect. VIX is up 29% in five sessions; the call has not moved.
Volatility jumped this week; the system classifies it as not a regime change.
Inputs are the 2025-05-23 close. A call never sees its own day's close.
THIS SITUATION CLOSES WHEN · 3 CONDITIONS+
This exact setup has occurred 45 times since 2012.
In 30 of 45 matches, the system held Calm and the scare passed, which was the right call. In 12 of 45, the system moved off Calm within days as conditions shifted. In 3 of 45, the system was wrong: it kept saying Calm while the S&P 500 went on to fall more than 5%.
THE DASHED LINE IS WHERE TODAY SITS. THE CHART IN SECTION 01 ENDS AT THAT LINE, WITH THE SAME TRIGGER WINDOW HIGHLIGHTED. MEDIAN OF HISTORICAL MATCHES · HISTORY, NOT A FORECAST.
THE DASHED LINE IS WHERE TODAY SITS. SAME TRIGGER WINDOW AS THE CHART ABOVE.
Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant
The situation opened 2025-05-27; every pre-open call since is logged below.
One entry per trading morning until a closing condition is met: the call, and the closes it was made against.
This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →
END OF TODAY'S REPORT
BELOW: STANDING REFERENCE · THE SYSTEM, ITS RECORD, AND DEFINITIONS. UNCHANGED DAY TO DAY.
Reference · The SystemTAP TO EXPAND +
The call is produced by a rules-based classifier, not a human judgment.
The Market State Detector classifies every trading day into one of five regime states, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning.
The call is produced by a rules-based classifier, not a human judgment.
The Market State Detector classifies every trading day into one of five regime states, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning.
Reference · The RecordTAP TO EXPAND +
The system's highest-severity call has been correct 10 times out of 10 since 2012, backtested and live.
An alert is a pre-open classification into one of the four elevated states; the record below scores those classifications against what the market did next. All five states are defined here.
| HEAD-TO-HEAD · 2012–2024 | THIS SYSTEM | VIX-ONLY BENCHMARK |
|---|---|---|
| Crisis calls that were correct | 9 of 9 | 13 of 16 |
| False positives at the crisis tier | 0 | 3 |
| False positives across all four elevated states | 10 | 40 |
| Alerts issued in total | 99 | 201 |
Same history, same scoring: 75% fewer false positives at half the alert volume.
The system's highest-severity call has been correct 10 times out of 10 since 2012, backtested and live.
An alert is a pre-open classification into one of the four elevated states; the record below scores those classifications against what the market did next. All five states are defined here.
| HEAD-TO-HEAD · 2012–2024 | THIS SYSTEM | VIX-ONLY BENCHMARK |
|---|---|---|
| Crisis calls that were correct | 9 of 9 | 13 of 16 |
| False positives at the crisis tier | 0 | 3 |
| False positives across all four elevated states | 10 | 40 |
| Alerts issued in total | 99 | 201 |
Same history, same scoring: 75% fewer false positives at half the alert volume.
Reference · DefinitionsTAP TO EXPAND +
Every outcome bucket was defined before the fact.
These definitions do not move after the outcome is known. Prices come from CBOE and Yahoo Finance.
Every outcome bucket was defined before the fact.
These definitions do not move after the outcome is known. Prices come from CBOE and Yahoo Finance.
Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods