Mindforge IntelligenceData Buyer Brief
Orthogonal • Validated • Daily • Pre-Market
A daily market regime classification built entirely on environmental signals. Market-confirmed. 12+ years validated. Rules-based and fully auditable.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH ONLY
Mindforge Intelligence, LLC • Stamford, CT
Understanding the dataset before evaluating performance
2012-2024 • 12+ Years • Walk-Forward Validation • 2025-2026 Out-of-Sample
| STATE | WHAT IT CLASSIFIES | PRECISION | HITS/TOTAL | FP | FREQ/YR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Systemic Stress | Crisis-level regime: COVID, carry unwind, tariff shock | 100% | 9/9 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Volatility Spike | VIX expansion without systemic collapse | 93% | 13/14 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Turning | Regime pivot point: transition between states | 95% | 58/61 | 3 | 4.7 |
| Stress (Advisory) | Elevated conditions, advisory-level warning | 60% | 9/15 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Calm | Benign regime: reduced risk posture appropriate | Meta | — | — | ~71% of days |
Out-of-Sample • Production Classifications • Not Backtested
6 transitions. 28 days. Every classification delivered pre-market from environmental inputs — not from price data.
Every transition delivered pre-market. VIX peaked at 31.05 (Mar 27). Full crisis navigated over 28 days. Not a backtest. Timestamped production classifications using inputs orthogonal to traditional risk inputs.
Not another VIX derivative, sentiment scraper, or options-flow signal. The inputs are environmental data from government monitoring networks.
Zero correlation to price-based signals in a standard quant stack. This is a genuinely independent axis of information.
Calm covers 71% of trading days. The daily regime feed has value even when markets are quiet.
State-aware hedge sizing saved ~21% of annual hedge budget in backtests (2012-2024). Crisis detection is the safety net underneath.
12+ year backtest with strict walk-forward validation. Episode-level scoring, not cherry-picked days. No hindsight tuning.
Versioned rule manifests, full audit trail, and compliance-safe documentation package ready for your evaluation process.
5 distinct states, not a binary risk-on/risk-off toggle. The system distinguishes a volatility spike (VIX expansion) from systemic stress (crisis-level).
This granularity matters: Oct 2024 was classified Volatility Spike, not Systemic Stress. No forced liquidation on a temporary spike.
{
"date": "2026-03-21",
"state": "volatility_spike",
"previous_state": "turning",
"delivered_at": "2026-03-21T07:28:00-05:00",
"confidence": "high",
"manifest_version": "1.1.0"
}90-day production feed. Full historical backtest included. Pre-defined success criteria. No commitment beyond the pilot.
Complimentary evaluation for qualified institutional research teams.
Begin evaluation at mindforge.tech/evaluate or contact the research team directly.
mindforge.tech/evaluate
+1 (646) 847-9889
research@mindforge.tech
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods
Begin a 90-day evaluation with full access to daily state classifications, historical data, and institutional documentation.
Research use only • Not investment advice • Past performance ≠ future results • Full terms
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods