Market State Detector
Built for calm AND crisis.
Rules-based market stress classification delivered by 07:30 AM ET every U.S. trading day. Validated (2012–2024).
Stop bleeding premium
Most days are Calm. Aggressive hedging during these regimes has historically created premium drag.
Flag stress before it cascades
Systemic Stress states have historically preceded major market stress episodes with documented precision (100.00%).
Aug 2024
COVID 2020
Apr 2025
Research Briefs
The Calm Dividend
- •12-year backtest (2012–2024) + 2025 OOS
- •~21.0% hedge budget savings (illustrative; historical backtest)
- •VIX-based sizing methodology
Crisis Classification Brief
- •Systemic Stress precision: 100.00% (9/9 episodes)
- •COVID 2020, Aug 2024, Apr 2025 case studies
- •Lead time analysis + methodology
Most Days Are Calm
71% of trading days are classified as Calm State. That's when aggressive hedging bleeds premium. (2012-2024 backtest)
The Calm Dividend: On days classified Calm, historical data shows stable, low-volatility conditions.
Institutional teams can analyze whether reducing hedge intensity during these regimes improves net returns.
Backtested Calm-state hedge savings (~21%/yr baseline; 35.6% in 2025 OOS) can offset subscription cost. Stress detection adds per-event mitigation value.
Signals Ahead of the Break
// CRITICAL DISCLOSURE: HISTORICAL BACKTEST DATA ONLY. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
August 2024 Flash Crash
While traditional VIX-based alerts remained quiet (VIX <30), MSD flagged conditions historically associated with systemic stress before the weekend.
Risk teams with early classification had time to assess carry-trade exposure and review de-risking playbooks before Monday's open.
Traditional indicators triggered only after portfolios were impaired. MSD provided informational context 1 trading day earlier.
MSD is Running Now
The system classifies every U.S. trading day. Here's a delayed state example (current subscribers receive today's classification by 07:30 ET).
Historical classification shown. Research use only.
Why Teams Choose MSD
A Research Input for Morning RiskMorning Risk Input
Rules-based market state classification delivered pre-market. Built for scenario planning and governance workflows.
Standardized morning read
A standardized alternative to ad hoc dashboards and PM-by-PM judgment calls.
Research-grade classification
Rules-based system combining environmental and market data. Historical lead times documented for each state.
Audit-ready history
12+ years of timestamped daily states. Replayable for reviews, board packs, and client communication.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Terms
Five States of Market Stress
Proprietary rules-based classification framework providing daily informational context for institutional risk regimes.
Systemic Stress State
CRITICALUltra-selective classification for crisis-level market stress conditions.
Volatility Spike State
SEVEREClassification for rapid volatility surge conditions.
Stress State (Advisory)
ADVISORYResearch-grade classification for moderate stress conditions.
Turning State
INFLECTIONClassification for potential regime shift and exhaustion points.
Calm State
BASELINEClassification indicating absence of stress across all indicators.
Institutional Access
Lock in $80,000/yr for 3 Years
Early adopter pricing. Limited to the first 10 qualified institutional partners before 2026 rate adjustments. Subject to qualification.
Apply for Partner StatusMonthly
- Billed monthly
- Cancel anytime
- Daily pre-market feed
- Historical dataset
Annual
- Billed annually
- ~$6,667/mo effective
- All Monthly features
- Priority support
- Quarterly reviews
Enterprise
Over $5B AUM or full integration
- Multi-desk deployment
- Firm-wide licensing
- Custom API integration
- Dedicated account manager
Research use only. Not investment advice. Terms