FDEWS: Forbush DecreaseEarly Warning System
A validated research system delivering live space weather risk classification for satellite operators and critical infrastructure. Now operational and seeking pilot partners.
FDEWS Research Status
FDEWS is now operational with live data ingestion from NOAA, NASA, and Oulu. We are identifying pilot partners for aerospace and infrastructure applications.
Operational Impact of Severe CME Events
Current government services detect FD events after CME observation (~1-3 days before impact). FDEWS investigates earlier environmental risk classification to provide additional preparation time for scenario planning.
RESEARCH SYNOPSIS: Forbush Decreases are markers of severe CME arrivals, the same events that cause atmospheric drag, SEP bursts, and geomagnetic storms. Detecting FD precursors means detecting major space weather days in advance.
FDEWS Performance vs. Current Standard
Pre-event risk classification research for Forbush Decreases (tiered ELEVATED / CRITICAL).
Post-CME Observation
5× More Preparation Time
Detection Only
19 of 31 Events Detected
Post-Event Confirmation
CRITICAL Tier (Validated)
Methodology Note:Current methods provide notice after observing a CME. In backtested analysis, the ELEVATED tier captured about 61% of Forbush Decrease events with ~8 days mean lead time.
Understanding Forbush Decreases
Sudden drops in galactic cosmic ray intensity caused by CME-driven magnetic structures. FDs are primary markers of severe, Earth-directed space weather.
Rare events with disproportionate operational and financial costs.
Classification persistence typically spans several days to weeks.
CME-driven satellite damage and systemic infrastructure stress.
High-Criticality Operational Domains
Satellite Operations
- ::Atmospheric drag (LEO)
- ::SEP-induced anomalies
- ::Surface/deep charging
- ::Premature deorbiting
Space Agencies
- ::Spacewalk cancellations
- ::Radiation limits exceeded
- ::Mission delays
- ::Launch scrubs
Aviation (Polar Routes)
- ::Crew dose limits
- ::Route diversions
- ::Radio blackouts
- ::Last-minute rerouting
Power Grids (High Latitude)
- ::Transformer damage
- ::24/7 staff standby
- ::Equipment failures
- ::Recovery uncertainty
Anomalous Event Context
| Date | Event Identifier | Magnitude | Operational Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 14-15, 2000 | Bastille Day Event | High-impact disturbance event | Major solar event associated with satellite anomalies and GNSS impacts (historical). |
| October 28-30, 2003 | Halloween Storms | High-impact disturbance event | Major storm sequence with documented satellite, aviation, and infrastructure impacts (historical). |
| September 6-10, 2017 | September 2017 Event | Notable disturbance event | Documented radio impacts, aviation rerouting, and satellite anomalies (historical). |
| May 10-13, 2024 | May 2024 Event | Severe geomagnetic storm | Severe geomagnetic storm with satellite drag and operational alerts (historical). |
Data Infrastructure
| Source | Provider | Description | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| NASA DONKI | NASA CCMC | Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information | Event-based · 2010 - present |
| NOAA SWPC | NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center | Real-time solar wind and geomagnetic indices | Real-time · 1990s - present |
Common Questions
What is a Forbush Decrease?
A Forbush Decrease is a transient reduction in high-energy particle flux observed near Earth, typically associated with Earth-directed solar events (e.g., CMEs) and solar wind shock structures. These events are used as research markers for heightened space weather disturbance windows.
Why do Forbush Decreases matter for satellite operations?
Forbush Decreases are markers of severe Earth-directed CME events, the same solar storms that cause atmospheric drag, solar energetic particle (SEP) bursts, and geomagnetic disturbances. While the FD itself is a temporary reduction in galactic cosmic rays, detecting FD precursor conditions means detecting the arrival of major space weather that historically correlates with satellite anomalies, operational disruptions, and infrastructure stress.
How are Forbush Decreases currently detected?
Operational detection typically relies on a combination of publicly available space weather feeds (solar wind, geomagnetic indices, particle environment telemetry) and ground-based monitoring networks. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA CCMC provide widely used operational references.
What is the current state of Forbush Decrease detection?
Current government services (NOAA SWPC, ESA) detect FD events after CME observation, providing 1-3 days notice. These are reactive, official forecasts and remain the standard for operational use. Research approaches like FDEWS investigate earlier environmental risk classification, but are complementary inputs, not replacements.
What data sources are used to study Forbush Decreases?
Primary public sources include NASA DONKI (CME catalog), NOAA SWPC (solar wind + geomagnetic indices), and spacecraft particle/irradiance feeds (e.g., GOES). Research teams may also use additional ground-based monitoring networks, depending on study design.
What is Mindforge's FDEWS?
FDEWS (Forbush Decrease Early Warning System) is a validated research system that classifies elevated space weather disturbance conditions using publicly available NOAA/NASA sources. It is intended as an informational research input and is not a replacement for official operational forecasts.
Resources
⚠️ RISK CLASSIFICATION DISCLAIMER:FDEWS (Forbush Decrease Early Warning System) is a risk classification system, not a weather forecasting service. FDEWS classifies environmental conditions; it does not predict specific events or their timing.OFFICIAL DATA SOURCES:FDEWS is not affiliated with NOAA, ESA, or any government space weather service. It is intended to complement, not replace, official forecasts.HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE:All performance metrics are based on backtested analysis of 2010-2024 data. Past classification performance does not guarantee future results.For information about Mindforge's validated financial market classification products, see the Market State Detector page.