The Federal Reserve
validated the signal.
Mindforge operationalized it.
Atlanta Fed Working Paper 2003-5b documented statistically significant negative returns following elevated geomagnetic activity. Mindforge built a multi-factor regime classifier that incorporates that signal alongside other public environmental and market structure inputs, validated walk-forward against 2012–2024.
Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market
Krivelyova, A., & Robotti, C. — Working Paper 2003-5b
“High geomagnetic activity has a negative, statistically significant effect on stock returns across U.S. indices.”
70 years of data · U.S. equity returns · Statistically significant after standard controls
Access publicationPrimary public inputs
The four below are the primary public feeds the Market State Detector reads. Each is independently verifiable, sourced from the institution that maintains it, and has decades of continuous history.
These public feeds are combined with proprietary derived environmental signals inside the classifier. The classification logic itself is rules-based and deterministic — same inputs, same output, every run.
Common questions
Is there academic research on geomagnetic storms and stock markets?
Yes. In 2003, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta published Working Paper 2003-5b, 'Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market.' Using 70 years of data, they found that unusually high geomagnetic activity has a statistically significant negative effect on the following week's U.S. stock returns. The paper is publicly available through the Federal Reserve archives.
What mechanism do researchers propose for the correlation?
The Federal Reserve researchers drew on psychology literature showing that geomagnetic storms correlate with mood disturbances, hypothesizing that affected individuals may misattribute environmental discomfort to economic conditions. The hypothesis builds on earlier peer-reviewed work — Kay (1994, British Journal of Psychiatry) on geomagnetic activity and psychiatric admissions, and Schwarz & Clore (1983) on mood misattribution in judgment.
How does Mindforge use this research?
Mindforge incorporates publicly available NOAA and NASA space weather data into a multi-factor regime classification system alongside market structure inputs. The system classifies current market states (Calm, Turning, Stress, Volatility Spike, Systemic Stress) using rules-based logic. Mindforge does not predict markets — it classifies current conditions. Walk-forward backtested precision is published in the methodology documentation.
Research Notice: Correlation does not prove causation. Academic studies document statistical patterns only. Mindforge classification systems are for informational research purposes — not investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. Walk-forward backtested performance (2012–2024) does not guarantee future results. Consult qualified licensed financial professionals before making investment decisions.