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MSD
MINDFORGE INTELLIGENCE
Market State Detector

THE CRISIS
CLASSIFICATION BRIEF

[ Crisis Timing & Lead-Time Audit ]

OVERVIEW

Quick Skim

DEEP DIVE

Full Analysis

SYSTEM CONTEXT
Market State Detector (MSD) : Daily regime classification. Delivered pre-market. Research tool, not trading signal.
CRISIS : MSD market regime classifications: Volatility Spike + Systemic Stress. Historically — of trading days.
CORE FINDING

Traditional triggers fire after crashes start.

MSD timestamps regime shifts pre-market.

Backtest window: 2012–2024 + 2025 OOS • 100% hit rate (Systemic Stress), 93% (Vol Spike) • mindforge.tech/terms

FOR INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH ONLY • MINDFORGE.TECH
OVERVIEWTHE SPEED PROOFCOVID-19 Crash — March 2020
speed-proof-overview
Baselines trigger late. MSD timestamps Systemic Stress early.
MSD classification
Systemic Stress (Feb 24, 2020)
Lead time (definition)
Trading sessions between MSD classification timestamp and subsequent VIX peak.
Lead time (COVID)
VIX peaked 15 trading sessions later (Mar 16, 2020)
Why it matters
Early classification = cheaper hedges. VIX-based triggers fire after premium spikes.
speed-proof-overview-print
Baselines trigger late. MSD timestamps Systemic Stress early.
MSD classification
Systemic Stress (Feb 24, 2020)
Lead time (definition)
Trading sessions between MSD classification timestamp and subsequent VIX peak.
Lead time (COVID)
VIX peaked 15 trading sessions later (Mar 16, 2020)
Why it matters
Early classification = cheaper hedges. VIX-based triggers fire after premium spikes.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
DEEP DIVETHE SPEED PROOFCOVID-19 Crash — March 2020
speed-proof-detail
speed-proof-detail-print
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
OVERVIEWTHE SCALE PROOFApril 2025 Tariff Crisis — Multi-Phase Navigation
scale-proof-overview
After a spike, baselines wait. MSD timestamps re-entry.
Re-entry
Calm Restored (Mar 11) — participation window timestamped before the Apr 4 regime shock.
Sequence
Early warning → Calm (Restored) → Systemic Stress (multi-phase navigation)
Why it matters
Round-trip capability: the chart highlights both protection and participation (re-entry).
scale-proof-overview-print
After a spike, baselines wait. MSD timestamps re-entry.
Re-entry
Calm Restored (Mar 11) — participation window timestamped before the Apr 4 regime shock.
Sequence
Early warning → Calm (Restored) → Systemic Stress (multi-phase navigation)
Why it matters
Round-trip capability: the chart highlights both protection and participation (re-entry).
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
DEEP DIVETHE SCALE PROOFApril 2025 Tariff Crisis — Multi-Phase Navigation
scale-proof-detail
scale-proof-detail-print
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
OVERVIEWTHE RESTRAINT PROOFLate-2024 Volatility Shock — Oct–Nov 2024
restraint-proof-overview
Avoid whipsaw. Classify a spike without crash posture.
Classification
Volatility Spike (NOT Systemic Stress)
Calm restored
Nov 7 — 5 trading sessions after Oct 31 classification
Why it matters
No forced liquidation. MSD distinguishes spikes from systemic episodes.
restraint-proof-overview-print
Avoid whipsaw. Classify a spike without crash posture.
Classification
Volatility Spike (NOT Systemic Stress)
Calm restored
Nov 7 — 5 trading sessions after Oct 31 classification
Why it matters
No forced liquidation. MSD distinguishes spikes from systemic episodes.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
DEEP DIVETHE RESTRAINT PROOFLate-2024 Volatility Shock — Oct–Nov 2024
restraint-proof-detail
restraint-proof-detail-print
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
OVERVIEWTHE NUANCE PROOFYen Carry Unwind — August 2024
nuance-proof-overview
The risk is false calm. MSD timestamps stress pre-market.
MSD classification
Systemic Stress (Aug 2; pre-market delivery)
Lead time (Aug 2024)
VIX high reached on the next trading session (Aug 5 window)
Why it matters
Turns 'false calm' into a timestamped regime shift before dislocation.
nuance-proof-overview-print
The risk is false calm. MSD timestamps stress pre-market.
MSD classification
Systemic Stress (Aug 2; pre-market delivery)
Lead time (Aug 2024)
VIX high reached on the next trading session (Aug 5 window)
Why it matters
Turns 'false calm' into a timestamped regime shift before dislocation.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
DEEP DIVETHE NUANCE PROOFYen Carry Unwind — August 2024
nuance-proof-detail
nuance-proof-detail-print
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
ECONOMICSTHE MATHHypothetical Performance Framing
THE LEAD TIME QUESTION

What was 15 trading days worth in February 2020?

Feb 24 ClassificationVIX 25
Mar 16 PeakVIX 82
Hedge Cost at VIX 25~2.0%
Hedge Cost at VIX 50+~6.0%
THE RESTRAINT QUESTION

What was avoiding a late-2024 whipsaw worth?

MSD ClassificationVOL SPIKE
DecisionNO FORCED ACTION
Static VIX ModelsLIQUIDATE AT LOWS
Outcome WindowVOL NORMALIZED
THE VALUE PROPOSITION
6×
ILLUSTRATIVE MULTIPLE (HYPOTHETICAL)
Illustrative arithmetic only — not a performance guarantee.
Tail-risk impact (hypothetical)$500,000
(hypothetical: 0.10% of $500M AUM)
Annual license$80,000
ONE CORRECT CLASSIFICATION IN A TAIL EVENT
PAYS FOR DECADES OF RESEARCH.
Early adopter pricing • Subject to 2026 adjustments
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation
ACCESSEVALUATION

VERIFY IT LIVE

90 Days. Full Access.

INCLUDES
  • • Daily classification via email or API
  • • 12 years of historical backtest + 2025 OOS
QUALIFICATION

Complimentary evaluation for qualified institutional research teams.

RESTRICTED TO INSTITUTIONAL USE
CALM + CRISIS
This brief: how MSD timestamps regime shifts pre-market.
To see how MSD-informed sizing reduces hedge costs during Calm (71% of trading days), see The Calm Dividend Brief.
EVALUATION PORTAL

mindforge.tech/evaluate

PHONE

+1 (646) 847-9889

EMAIL

research@mindforge.tech

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation

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Research use only • Not investment advice • Past performance ≠ future results • Full terms

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods