MINDFORGE INTELLIGENCE
Market Risk Classifier
THE CRISIS
CLASSIFICATION BRIEF
[ Crisis Timing & Lead-Time Audit ]
SYSTEM CONTEXT
Market Risk Classifier (MRC) : Daily regime classification. Delivered pre-market. Research tool, not trading signal.
CRISIS : MRC market regime classifications: SHOCK + CRISIS.
CORE FINDING
Traditional triggers fire after crashes start.
MRC timestamps regime shifts pre-market.
Backtest window: 1990-2025 + 2025 OOS • 92.31% hit rate (CRISIS), 85.07% (SHOCK) • mindforge.tech/terms
OVERVIEWTHE SPEED PROOFCOVID-19 Crash — March 2020
Baselines trigger late. MRC timestamps CRISIS early.
MRC classification
CRISIS (Feb 24, 2020)
Lead time (definition)
Trading sessions between MRC classification timestamp and subsequent VIX peak.
Lead time (COVID)
VIX peaked 15 trading sessions later (Mar 16, 2020)
Why it matters
Early classification = cheaper hedges. VIX-based triggers fire after premium spikes.
Baselines trigger late. MRC timestamps CRISIS early.
MRC classification
CRISIS (Feb 24, 2020)
Lead time (definition)
Trading sessions between MRC classification timestamp and subsequent VIX peak.
Lead time (COVID)
VIX peaked 15 trading sessions later (Mar 16, 2020)
Why it matters
Early classification = cheaper hedges. VIX-based triggers fire after premium spikes.
DEEP DIVETHE SPEED PROOFCOVID-19 Crash — March 2020
OVERVIEWTHE SCALE PROOFApril 2025 Tariff Crisis — Multi-Phase Navigation
After a spike, baselines wait. MRC timestamps re-entry.
Re-entry
STABLE Restored (Mar 11) — participation window timestamped before the Apr 4 regime shock.
Sequence
Early warning → STABLE (Restored) → CRISIS (multi-phase navigation)
Why it matters
Round-trip capability: the chart highlights both protection and participation (re-entry).
After a spike, baselines wait. MRC timestamps re-entry.
Re-entry
STABLE Restored (Mar 11) — participation window timestamped before the Apr 4 regime shock.
Sequence
Early warning → STABLE (Restored) → CRISIS (multi-phase navigation)
Why it matters
Round-trip capability: the chart highlights both protection and participation (re-entry).
DEEP DIVETHE SCALE PROOFApril 2025 Tariff Crisis — Multi-Phase Navigation
OVERVIEWTHE RESTRAINT PROOFLate-2024 Volatility Shock — Oct–Nov 2024
Avoid whipsaw. Classify a spike without crash posture.
Classification
SHOCK (NOT CRISIS)
STABLE restored
Nov 7 — 5 trading sessions after Oct 31 classification
Why it matters
No forced liquidation. MRC distinguishes spikes from systemic episodes.
Avoid whipsaw. Classify a spike without crash posture.
Classification
SHOCK (NOT CRISIS)
STABLE restored
Nov 7 — 5 trading sessions after Oct 31 classification
Why it matters
No forced liquidation. MRC distinguishes spikes from systemic episodes.
DEEP DIVETHE RESTRAINT PROOFLate-2024 Volatility Shock — Oct–Nov 2024
OVERVIEWTHE NUANCE PROOFYen Carry Unwind — August 2024
The risk is looking quiet. MRC timestamps stress pre-market.
MRC classification
CRISIS (Aug 2; pre-market delivery)
Lead time (Aug 2024)
VIX high reached on the next trading session (Aug 5 window)
Why it matters
Turns the danger of looking quiet into a timestamped regime shift before dislocation.
The risk is looking quiet. MRC timestamps stress pre-market.
MRC classification
CRISIS (Aug 2; pre-market delivery)
Lead time (Aug 2024)
VIX high reached on the next trading session (Aug 5 window)
Why it matters
Turns the danger of looking quiet into a timestamped regime shift before dislocation.
DEEP DIVETHE NUANCE PROOFYen Carry Unwind — August 2024
ECONOMICSTHE MATHHypothetical Performance Framing
THE LEAD TIME QUESTION
What was 15 trading days worth in February 2020?
Feb 24 ClassificationVIX 25
Mar 16 PeakVIX 82
Hedge Cost at VIX 25~2.0%
Hedge Cost at VIX 50+~6.0%
THE RESTRAINT QUESTION
What was avoiding a late-2024 whipsaw worth?
MRC ClassificationSHOCK
DecisionNO FORCED ACTION
Static VIX ModelsLIQUIDATE AT LOWS
Outcome WindowVOL NORMALIZED
THE VALUE PROPOSITION
6×
ILLUSTRATIVE MULTIPLE (HYPOTHETICAL)
Illustrative arithmetic only — not a performance guarantee.
Tail-risk impact (hypothetical)$500,000
(hypothetical: 0.10% of $500M AUM)
Annual license$48,000
ONE CORRECT CLASSIFICATION IN A TAIL EVENT
PAYS FOR DECADES OF RESEARCH.
Early adopter pricing • Subject to 2026 adjustments
ACCESSPILOT
VERIFY IT LIVE
60 Days. Full Access.
INCLUDES
- • Daily classification via email or API
- • 12 years of historical backtest + 2025 OOS
QUALIFICATION
Institutional 60-day pilot for qualified research teams.
RESTRICTED TO INSTITUTIONAL USE
STABLE + CRISIS
This brief: how MRC timestamps regime shifts pre-market.To see how MRC-informed sizing reduces hedge costs during STABLE (87% of trading days), see
The Stability Dividend Brief.
