Space Weather Early Warning
Disruption risk assessment days before official alerts confirm events.
Probabilistic disruption risk classification for satellite, GPS, power, and aviation operations. Delivered via email/webhook/API. Complements NOAA/ESA official forecasts. Walk-forward validated (2010-2024).
Two Layers. One Operating Picture.
Upstream disruption risk assessment + downstream confirmed alerts = days of preparation before hours of response.
Disruption risk assessment
Probabilistic classification detects elevated disruption risk days before storms are confirmed. Validated against 2010-2024 event catalog.
Confirmed event alerts
NOAA SWPC, ESA, and other official forecasters confirm eruptions after detection. High-precision, physics-based nowcasting.
Together: Upstream disruption risk assessment + official confirmed alerts = days of preparation before hours of confirmed response.
Gannon Storm: May 2024
First G5 geomagnetic storm since 2003 - what complementary coverage looks like
Day -4: Disruption risk elevated. Upstream indicators flagged rising probability. Enough time to brief executives and pre-stage response teams.
Day -1: NOAA confirmed fast earth-directed CME. Contingency plans activated. ~5,000 satellite maneuvers executed.
Together: 4 days of preparation followed by confirmed-event response. Neither layer alone provides both.
Industries We Serve
Space weather disruption impacts
6-Month Pilot Program
Disruption Risk Assessment System: This system classifies the probability of space weather disruptions to infrastructure; it does not predict specific events or their exact timing. For informational and research purposes only.
Complementary System: Not affiliated with NOAA, ESA, or any government space weather service. Designed as an upstream disruption risk layer that complements official forecasts. Does not replace confirmed-event alerts from official sources.
Validation: Performance metrics based on walk-forward validation (9-fold, 2016-2024 out-of-sample testing) against the 2010-2024 event catalog. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full methodology.