Space Weather Early Warning System. Forbush Decrease monitoring with multi-source classification. Not operational advice.
The Space Weather Early Warning System (SEWS) is a space weather monitoring service that classifies conditions associated with Forbush Decrease events. These events are sudden upstream disturbances associated with solar activity that can affect satellite electronics, power grid stability, polar aviation routes, and radiation-sensitive research equipment.
SEWS continuously monitors multiple space weather data sources and classifies current conditions into one of four operational states. Each state carries a defined meaning and a recommended operational posture, enabling satellite operators, power grid operators, and other critical infrastructure teams to make informed decisions before conditions deteriorate.
SEWS assigns one of four states to current space weather conditions. States are ordered by severity, from routine to active event.
| State | Condition | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|
| QUIET | Space weather is stable. Multiple public environmental feeds indicate baseline conditions. | Normal operations may proceed with confidence. |
| FORECAST | A coronal mass ejection (CME) has been detected heading toward Earth. Event possible in 24 to 72 hours. | Review contingency plans and confirm readiness procedures. |
| WATCH | Geomagnetic storm conditions are developing. A Forbush Decrease is more likely. | Heighten monitoring of affected systems. |
| ACTIVE | A Forbush Decrease event is currently in progress, based on public space weather indicators. | Follow internal event procedures. |
Each state represents a distinct operational condition. QUIET is the baseline (assigned approximately 90% of the time).
QUIET is a positive classification, not the absence of a warning. It is assigned when multiple public environmental feeds indicate stable conditions. Exact internal scoring and thresholds are reserved for pilot partners.
Most space weather services produce output only when something is wrong. SEWS treats stability confirmation as an operational product in its own right, because operators need confidence to proceed, not just warnings to stop.
SEWS integrates public space weather data with proprietary environmental indicators to produce its classifications. No single source drives the state assignment; the system cross-references multiple feeds before classifying.
| Source | Data | Update Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA SWPC | Kp index, solar radiation measurements | Every 15 minutes |
| NASA DONKI | Coronal mass ejection (CME) tracking | Hourly |
| Environmental Monitoring Network | Upstream environmental indicators | Hourly |
| Proprietary Indicators | Multi-day leading signals derived from Mindforge research | Daily |
Primary data feeds and their update cadences.
SEWS is designed for organizations whose operations are sensitive to space weather conditions. Four primary use cases are supported today.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods
