Mindforge Intelligence

Market Risk Classifier · Market Anomaly Report · No. 007 of 2025

A rules-based system that classifies every trading day into one of five risk shapes, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning. About the system →

Anomaly reportConcluded · 2025-10-14

Final call · 2025-10-13

STABLE

OUR SYSTEM READS THE RISK SHAPE AS STABLE

CALM remains in effect. VIX is up 30% in five sessions; the call has not moved.

Volatility jumped this week; the system classifies it as not a regime change.

View the live report →Past anomaly reports →

Report No. 007 of 2025 · opened 2025-10-13

LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX + S&P 500 · STATE BAND = THE CALL IN EFFECT

VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

21.66

5-SESSION CHANGE +30.1%

S&P 500

6,552.51

5-SESSION CHANGE -2.4%

Inputs are the 2025-10-10 close. A call never sees its own day's close.

Anomaly concluded · 2025-10-14Call: 2025-10-13 · pre-openInputs: 2025-10-10 session closeLive report →

01 · The Call · 2025-10-13CALL 2025-10-13 · INPUTS THROUGH 2025-10-10 CLOSE

CALM remains in effect. VIX is up 30% in five sessions; the call has not moved.

Volatility jumped this week; the system classifies it as not a regime change.

STATE

STABLE

OUR SYSTEM READS THE RISK SHAPE AS STABLE

VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

21.66

CLOSE 2025-10-10 · 5-SESSION CHANGE +30.1%

S&P 500

6,552.51

CLOSE 2025-10-10 · 5-SESSION CHANGE -2.4%

LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX + S&P 500 CLOSES · STATE BAND = THE CALL IN EFFECT EACH DAYTHROUGH 2025-10-10 CLOSE

REPORTNo. 007 of 2025Filing id 2025-007 — the permanent address below uses it.

ANOMALY TYPEVIX DIVERGENCEThe standing trigger for this type: the system saying Calm while VIX rises 25%+ in a week.

DAY1 · OPENED 2025-10-13

STATUSCLOSED · 2025-10-14

PERMALINKmindforge.tech/market-state-detector/situation-reports/2025-007Updates daily while the anomaly is active; frozen once it concludes.

THIS ANOMALY CONCLUDES WHEN(a) The system escalates to a more severe state (escalated).(b) VIX's 5-session change falls back below +25% with no escalation (the scare faded).(c) No escalation within 10 sessions and the S&P 500 falls 5%+ within 20 (the call was wrong).

TYPE: VIX DIVERGENCE · the system saying Calm while VIX rises 25%+ in a week

PERMALINK: mindforge.tech/market-state-detector/situation-reports/2025-007

THIS ANOMALY CONCLUDES WHEN · 3 CONDITIONS+

(a) The system escalates to a more severe state (escalated).(b) VIX's 5-session change falls back below +25% with no escalation (the scare faded).(c) No escalation within 10 sessions and the S&P 500 falls 5%+ within 20 (the call was wrong).

02 · The Precedent

This exact setup has occurred 48 times since 2012.

In 33 of 48 matches, the system held Stable and the scare passed, which was the right call. In 12 of 48, the system moved off Stable within days as conditions shifted. In 3 of 48, the system was wrong: it kept saying Stable while the S&P 500 went on to fall more than 5%.

SEARCH QUERYstate == CALM AND VIX 5-session change >= +25%

HISTORY SEARCHED3,465 TRADING SESSIONS · SINCE 2012

MATCHES FOUND48 PRIOR MORNINGS

QUERY: state == CALM AND VIX 5-session change >= +25% · 3,465 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 48 MATCHES

MEDIAN PATH THROUGH ALL 48 MATCHES · VIX + S&P 500 INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCH20 SESSIONS BEFORE → 15 AFTER

THE DASHED LINE IS WHERE TODAY SITS. THE CHART IN SECTION 01 ENDS AT THAT LINE, WITH THE SAME TRIGGER WINDOW HIGHLIGHTED. MEDIAN OF HISTORICAL MATCHES · HISTORY, NOT A FORECAST.

THE DASHED LINE IS WHERE TODAY SITS. SAME TRIGGER WINDOW AS THE CHART ABOVE.

HISTORICAL ACCURACY OF THE MARKET STATE DETECTOR · ALL 48 MATCHES

94%

THE SYSTEM HELD STABLE CORRECTLY OR MOVED OFF STABLE WITHIN DAYS · 45 OF 48 MATCHES

THE SYSTEM WAS WRONG · HELD STABLE THROUGH A 5%+ FALL · 3 MORNINGS: 2014-09 · 2015-07 · 2022-04

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES

69%

25%

33 OF 48The scare faded. No escalation, no hard fall

12 OF 48Escalated within days. The system issued a more severe classification within 10 trading sessions

3 OF 48It was wrong. 2014-09 · 2015-07 · 2022-04 · the system did not escalate within 10 sessions and the S&P 500 fell 5% or more within 20 sessions

HISTORY, NOT A FORECAST · MINDFORGE · REPORT 2025-007 · 2025-10-13

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

03 · Anomaly LogOPENED 2025-10-13

The anomaly opened 2025-10-13; every pre-open call since is logged below.

One entry per trading morning until a closing condition is met: the call, and the closes it was made against.

2025-10-13 · DAY 1STABLE · VIX 21.66 (+30.1% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 6,552.51 (-2.4%)

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

END OF TODAY'S REPORT

BELOW: STANDING REFERENCE · THE SYSTEM, ITS RECORD, AND DEFINITIONS. UNCHANGED DAY TO DAY.

Reference · The SystemTAP TO EXPAND +

The call is produced by a rules-based classifier, not a human judgment.

The Market Risk Classifier classifies every trading day into one of five risk shapes, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning.

WHAT IT ISMARKET STATE DETECTOR · A DAILY MARKET-REGIME CLASSIFIER

THE FIVE STATES[STABLE]SHIFTING ELEVATED SHOCK CRISISIn order of severity. The current state is highlighted; each links to its definition.

WHEN IT RUNSBEFORE THE OPEN · EVERY TRADING MORNING

INPUTSENVIRONMENTAL SIGNALS + MARKET DATA (S&P 500, VIX)

WHEN THE CALL CHANGESSUBSCRIBERS ARE ALERTED THE SAME MORNING

Reference · The System

The call is produced by a rules-based classifier, not a human judgment.

The Market Risk Classifier classifies every trading day into one of five risk shapes, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning.

WHAT IT ISMARKET STATE DETECTOR · A DAILY MARKET-REGIME CLASSIFIER

THE FIVE STATES[STABLE]SHIFTING ELEVATED SHOCK CRISISIn order of severity. The current state is highlighted; each links to its definition.

WHEN IT RUNSBEFORE THE OPEN · EVERY TRADING MORNING

INPUTSENVIRONMENTAL SIGNALS + MARKET DATA (S&P 500, VIX)

WHEN THE CALL CHANGESSUBSCRIBERS ARE ALERTED THE SAME MORNING

Reference · The RecordTAP TO EXPAND +

The system's highest-severity call has been correct 13 times out of 14 since 2012, backtested and live.

An alert is a pre-open classification into one of the four elevated states; the record below scores those classifications against what the market did next. All five risk shapes are defined here.

CRISIS CALLS · CRISIS12 OF 13 CORRECT IN THE 1990-2024 BACKTEST · 1 OF 1 CORRECT LIVE (APRIL 2025)The live call was delivered pre-open on 2025-04-04; the next session, VIX touched 60 intraday.

"COULDN'T WE BUILD THIS FROM VIX OURSELVES?"THE TABLE BELOW IS THAT TESTWe built a best-effort VIX-only classifier (adaptive percentile gates, z-scores, and rate-of-change rules) and scored it against the system over the same 1990-2024 history with identical rules. The VIX trigger on this page only flags that a morning needs a call; the call itself comes from the classifier.

MOST RECENT LIVE TWO-SIDED CALL · IRAN SHOCK 2026SHIFTING 2026-03-04 · OFF STABLE AT VIX 19 → STABLE 2026-03-31 · AT VIX 30.6The system left Stable while VIX was 19, and returned to Stable while VIX was still 30.6.

ALERT FREQUENCYFEWER THAN 15 ALERTS A YEAR

Reference · The Record

The system's highest-severity call has been correct 13 times out of 14 since 2012, backtested and live.

An alert is a pre-open classification into one of the four elevated states; the record below scores those classifications against what the market did next. All five risk shapes are defined here.

CRISIS CALLS · CRISIS12 OF 13 CORRECT IN THE 1990-2024 BACKTEST · 1 OF 1 CORRECT LIVE (APRIL 2025)The live call was delivered pre-open on 2025-04-04; the next session, VIX touched 60 intraday.

ALERT FREQUENCYFEWER THAN 15 ALERTS A YEAR

Reference · DefinitionsTAP TO EXPAND +

Every outcome bucket was defined before the fact.

These definitions do not move after the outcome is known. Prices come from CBOE and Yahoo Finance.

"THE SCARE FADED" (RESOLVED)neither of the other two — the episode passed without a more severe state and without a hard fall

"ESCALATED WITHIN DAYS" (ESCALATED)the system moved to a more severe state within 10 sessions

"IT WAS WRONG" (WRONG)the system did not escalate within 10 sessions and the S&P 500 fell 5% or more within 20 sessions

TIMESTAMPSA CALL DATED 2025-10-13 IS DELIVERED PRE-OPEN THAT MORNING, FROM CLOSES THROUGH 2025-10-10 · A CALL NEVER SEES ITS OWN DAY'S CLOSE

PRICE SOURCESCBOE (VIX) · YAHOO FINANCE (S&P 500) · CLOSES AS OF 2025-10-10

DATA WINDOW1990-2024 BACKTESTED · JAN 2025 ONWARD OUT-OF-SAMPLE · APR 2025 ONWARD LIVE PRODUCTION

Reference · Definitions