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Market Risk Classifier · Market Anomaly Report · No. 003 of 2025

A rules-based system that classifies every trading day into one of five risk shapes, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning. About the system →

Anomaly reportConcluded · 2025-05-01
Final call · 2025-05-01
STABLE
OUR SYSTEM READS THE RISK SHAPE AS STABLE

CALM is back in effect. The system stood down from a TURNING episode before the open.

The system returned to Calm this morning, ending a Turning episode.

View the live report →Past anomaly reports →
Report No. 003 of 2025 · opened 2025-04-01
LAST 20 SESSIONS · VIX + S&P 500 · STATE BAND = THE CALL IN EFFECT
STABLESHOCKCRISISSHIFTING52.321.5VIX5,6714,983S&P04/0204/1504/30
VIX · CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX
24.70
5-SESSION CHANGE -13.2%
S&P 500
5,569.06
5-SESSION CHANGE +3.6%

Inputs are the 2025-04-30 close. A call never sees its own day's close.

01 · The Call · 2025-05-01
TYPE: STAND-DOWN · the system returning to Calm after a non-Calm episode
PERMALINK: mindforge.tech/market-state-detector/situation-reports/2025-003
THIS ANOMALY CONCLUDES WHEN · 2 CONDITIONS+
(a) Calm holds for 10 sessions with no re-escalation (held).(b) The system re-escalates within 10 sessions (a new episode opens).
02 · The Precedent

This exact setup has occurred 31 times since 2012.

The most common resolution: calm held, in 84% of matches. Every match is counted in exactly one outcome bucket below.

QUERY: first morning back in CALM after a non-Calm episode · 3,352 SESSIONS SINCE 2012 · 31 MATCHES
MEDIAN PATH THROUGH ALL 31 MATCHES · VIX + S&P 500 INDEXED TO 100 AT THE MATCH20 SESSIONS BEFORE → 15 AFTER
THE MATCHED MORNING · TODAY'S POSITION12088VIX101.597.3S&P−20 SESSIONS0+15 SESSIONS

THE DASHED LINE IS WHERE TODAY SITS. SAME TRIGGER WINDOW AS THE CHART ABOVE.

HISTORICAL MARKET CLASSIFICATION OUTCOMES · ALL 31 MATCHES
84%
16%
26 OF 31Calm held. No re-escalation within 10 sessions
5 OF 31Re-escalated. The system left Calm again within 10 trading sessions
HISTORY, NOT A FORECAST · MINDFORGE · REPORT 2025-003 · 2025-05-01

Free · issued pre-open when conditions warrant

03 · Anomaly Log

The anomaly opened 2025-04-01; every pre-open call since is logged below.

One entry per trading morning until a closing condition is met: the call, and the closes it was made against.

2025-04-01 · DAY 1STABLE · VIX 22.28 (+27.5% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,611.85 (-2.7%)
2025-04-02 · DAY 2STABLE · VIX 21.77 (+26.9% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,633.07 (-2.5%)
2025-04-03 · DAY 3SHOCK · VIX 21.51 (+17.3% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,670.97 (-0.7%)
2025-04-04 · DAY 4CRISIS · VIX 30.02 (+60.6% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,396.52 (-5.2%)
2025-04-07 · DAY 5CRISIS · VIX 45.31 (+109.3% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,074.08 (-9.1%)
2025-04-08 · DAY 6CRISIS · VIX 46.98 (+110.9% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,062.25 (-9.8%)
2025-04-09 · DAY 7CRISIS · VIX 52.33 (+140.4% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 4,982.77 (-11.5%)
2025-04-10 · DAY 8CRISIS · VIX 33.62 (+56.3% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,456.90 (-3.8%)
2025-04-11 · DAY 9CRISIS · VIX 40.72 (+35.6% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,268.05 (-2.4%)
2025-04-14 · DAY 10CRISIS · VIX 37.56 (-17.1% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,363.36 (+5.7%)
2025-04-15 · DAY 11SHIFTING · VIX 30.89 (-34.2% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,405.97 (+6.8%)
2025-04-16 · DAY 12SHIFTING · VIX 30.12 (-42.4% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,396.63 (+8.3%)
2025-04-17 · DAY 13SHIFTING · VIX 32.64 (-2.9% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,275.70 (-3.3%)
2025-04-21 · DAY 14SHIFTING · VIX 29.65 (-27.2% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,282.70 (+0.3%)
2025-04-22 · DAY 15SHIFTING · VIX 33.82 (-10.0% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,158.20 (-3.8%)
2025-04-23 · DAY 16SHIFTING · VIX 30.57 (-1.0% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,287.76 (-2.2%)
2025-04-24 · DAY 17SHIFTING · VIX 28.45 (-5.5% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,375.86 (-0.4%)
2025-04-25 · DAY 18SHIFTING · VIX 26.47 (-18.9% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,484.77 (+4.0%)
2025-04-28 · DAY 19SHIFTING · VIX 24.84 (-16.2% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,525.21 (+4.6%)
2025-04-29 · DAY 20SHIFTING · VIX 25.15 (-25.6% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,528.75 (+7.2%)
2025-04-30 · DAY 21SHIFTING · VIX 24.17 (-20.9% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,560.83 (+5.2%)
2025-05-01 · DAY 22STABLE · VIX 24.70 (-13.2% / 5 SESSIONS) · S&P 500 5,569.06 (+3.6%)

This report is preserved at its permanent address · the live report continues every trading morning →

END OF TODAY'S REPORT

BELOW: STANDING REFERENCE · THE SYSTEM, ITS RECORD, AND DEFINITIONS. UNCHANGED DAY TO DAY.

Reference · The SystemTAP TO EXPAND +

The call is produced by a rules-based classifier, not a human judgment.

The Market Risk Classifier classifies every trading day into one of five risk shapes, delivered before the open, by the same rules every morning.

WHAT IT ISMARKET STATE DETECTOR · A DAILY MARKET-REGIME CLASSIFIER
THE FIVE STATES[STABLE]SHIFTINGELEVATEDSHOCKCRISISIn order of severity. The current state is highlighted; each links to its definition.
WHEN IT RUNSBEFORE THE OPEN · EVERY TRADING MORNING
INPUTSENVIRONMENTAL SIGNALS + MARKET DATA (S&P 500, VIX)
WHEN THE CALL CHANGESSUBSCRIBERS ARE ALERTED THE SAME MORNING
Reference · The RecordTAP TO EXPAND +

The system's highest-severity call has been correct 13 times out of 14 since 2012, backtested and live.

An alert is a pre-open classification into one of the four elevated states; the record below scores those classifications against what the market did next. All five risk shapes are defined here.

CRISIS CALLS · CRISIS12 OF 13 CORRECT IN THE 1990-2024 BACKTEST · 1 OF 1 CORRECT LIVE (APRIL 2025)The live call was delivered pre-open on 2025-04-04; the next session, VIX touched 60 intraday.
"COULDN'T WE BUILD THIS FROM VIX OURSELVES?"THE TABLE BELOW IS THAT TESTWe built a best-effort VIX-only classifier (adaptive percentile gates, z-scores, and rate-of-change rules) and scored it against the system over the same 1990-2024 history with identical rules. The VIX trigger on this page only flags that a morning needs a call; the call itself comes from the classifier.
MOST RECENT LIVE TWO-SIDED CALL · IRAN SHOCK 2026SHIFTING 2026-03-04 · OFF STABLE AT VIX 19 → STABLE 2026-03-31 · AT VIX 30.6The system left Stable while VIX was 19, and returned to Stable while VIX was still 30.6.
ALERT FREQUENCYFEWER THAN 15 ALERTS A YEAR
Reference · DefinitionsTAP TO EXPAND +

Every outcome bucket was defined before the fact.

These definitions do not move after the outcome is known. Prices come from CBOE and Yahoo Finance.

"CALM HELD" (HELD)no re-escalation within 10 sessions of the all-clear
"RE-ESCALATED" (RE-ESCALATED)the system left Calm again within 10 sessions of the all-clear
TIMESTAMPSA CALL DATED 2025-05-01 IS DELIVERED PRE-OPEN THAT MORNING, FROM CLOSES THROUGH 2025-04-30 · A CALL NEVER SEES ITS OWN DAY'S CLOSE
PRICE SOURCESCBOE (VIX) · YAHOO FINANCE (S&P 500) · CLOSES AS OF 2025-04-30
DATA WINDOW1990-2024 BACKTESTED · JAN 2025 ONWARD OUT-OF-SAMPLE · APR 2025 ONWARD LIVE PRODUCTION

Historical base rates since 2012: history, not a forecast. Past classifications do not guarantee future accuracy. Research use only. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms · Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods