MINDFORGE INTELLIGENCE

Space Weather Status

Live assessment of solar storm risk to satellite, aviation, GPS, and power infrastructure

Disruption Risk Assessment

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What's driving this assessment

14-Day Disruption Forecast

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Proton Flux

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Earth-Dir CMEs

Real-Time Environment

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Kp Index

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CR 1h Change

What to do

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

Walk-forward validated backtest results (2010-2024)

Framework states — not live classifications

ELEVATED

Wider net. Catches more events. More false alarms.

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Precision

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Events Caught

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Avg Lead

~7/yr

Alerts

CRITICAL

Selective. Higher confidence. Fewer alerts.

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Precision

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Events Caught

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Avg Lead

~2/yr

Alerts

Precision = when it alerts, how often is it right. Events Caught = of all real events, how many did it catch.

MONITORED INPUTS

Real-time public indicators shown for context

Environmental Indicator

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Environmental monitoring networks provide upstream indicators. Rapid decreases are historically associated with major space weather disturbances.

Proton Flux

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>10 MeV proton flux from GOES satellites. Elevated flux indicates solar energetic particle events affecting spacecraft.

Geomagnetic Field (Kp Index)

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3-hour global geomagnetic activity index (0-9 scale). Kp ≥5 indicates storm conditions affecting infrastructure.

LAST EVENT DETECTED

Most recent Forbush Decrease captured by operational system

Event Window

Jan 19-26, 2026

G4 Severe Storm (Kp 8.3)

Peak Indicator Change

-10.44%

1h change (Jan 19, 23:00 UTC)

System Response Time

~2 hours

ELEVATED → Event In Progress

System went live Jan 19, 2026 and captured a Forbush Decrease in real time. First ELEVATED classifications published at 21:21 UTC. Event-in-progress onset was recorded at 23:16 UTC. System tracked the full event lifecycle through recovery and all-clear over the following week.

CME detected by NASA DONKI on Jan 18 at 1,473 km/s (earth-directed). This was the system's first live operational event, validating the full alert pipeline end-to-end under real-world conditions.

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RESEARCH SYSTEM. This is a validated research classification system. Not affiliated with NOAA/ESA. Research use only. Not investment advice. Full methodology.