Commodity Volatility Detector
Classified Critical.
Here's What Happened.
Every time the system classified Critical on Natural Gas in 2025, an extreme price move followed. 12 out of 12. On data the system had never seen.
100%
2025 Critical accuracy
7-8d
Advance warning
Natural Gas
12/12 events
Critical
Highest probability of extreme price dislocation
Elevated
Heightened probability of extreme price movement
Normal
Baseline conditions. Standard operations.
The Record
Select an event. See the call and the result. Both correct and missed directions are shown.
2025 LiveCredit CrackDirection Correct
Also classified on same date: WTI Crude (Critical)
Forward returns measured over 20 trading days from classification date. Historical classifications do not guarantee future results.
2025: All Three Commodities
Critical and Elevated classifications overlaid on price. Every colored bar is a call the system made.
2025 Results
Same system, same rules. Zero adjustments. Completely new data.
| Commodity | Critical accuracy | Events | Lead time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | 100% | 12 / 12 | 7-8 days |
| WTI Crude | 59% | 10 / 17 | 7-8 days |
| Brent Crude | 50% | 6 / 12 | 7-8 days |
Brent shown as combined Critical+Elevated. Small sample sizes. Monitoring continues.
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Backtested 2000-2024. 2025 results are live out-of-sample (Jan 2025 - Feb 2026, zero adjustments). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice. Full terms.