Active Research

Commodity Volatility Detector

7-8 days advance warning before extreme energy price moves.Natural Gas. WTI Crude. Brent Crude.

Daily pre-market classification. Backtested 2000-2024. Live since January 2025.

Normal(~95% of days)

No action required

No extreme energy price move expected in the near term. Standard operations. You only hear from CVD when conditions change.

~345

Days/yr

Low

Risk Level

Elevated(~10x/yr)

Review your energy exposure

Conditions historically preceding extreme energy price moves detected. An estimated 7-8 days to adjust hedges, review positions, or prepare procurement.

7-8

Days Lead

~10x

Per Year

Critical(~5x/yr)

Take protective action

Highest-confidence warning of an extreme energy price move. On Natural Gas, Critical has preceded extreme moves 85% of the time in backtest and 100% in 2025 live conditions.

~85%

Natural Gas
Backtest

100%

Natural Gas 2025
12/12 correct

What You Do With 7-8 Days

The difference between reacting to a price move and preparing for one.

April 2025

CVD classified Critical on Natural Gas and WTI Crude.

Within 8 days, Natural Gas declined 15.7% and WTI declined 13.9%.

Eight days to hedge, reduce exposure, or lock in contracts.

Enter hedges

Protective positions before the move

Adjust sizing

Reduce exposure ahead of volatility

Lock contracts

Secure fuel or supply at current prices

Brief leadership

Prepare risk committees before it hits

Live Results

How Often Is CVD Right?

January 2025 to February 2026. Same rules as the backtest. No adjustments. Market conditions the system never saw during development.

Natural Gas

100%

Critical accuracy: 12/12 correct

Backtest: ~85%

WTI Crude

59%

Critical accuracy: 10/17 correct

Backtest: ~79%

Brent Crude

50%

Combined accuracy: 6/15 correct

Small sample. Monitoring continues.

Natural Gas is the most accurate commodity. WTI and Brent have lower accuracy. We report all three so you know exactly what you are buying.

Ongoing validation. Updated as new data arrives.

Why Does It Arrive Early?

CVD uses environmental data that moves independently of market prices. Because the signal comes from outside the market, it can shift before market-based indicators react.

7-8d

Lead Time

24yr

Backtest

Commodities

Daily

Pre-Market

Not a replacement for your existing tools. A different lens on the same commodities.

CVD adds an input your current data stack does not include: an environmental signal with documented lead time over energy price moves.

Built for Energy Desks

Energy Trading Desks

Pre-market classification for hedge timing and position management across Natural Gas, WTI, and Brent.

Airline Fuel Procurement

Fuel is 20-30% of operating costs. An 8-day warning before a price spike changes how you time fuel contracts.

Utility Gas Procurement

Daily risk context for gas supply decisions. Know when to lock in rates versus wait.

Commodity Hedge Funds

An additional signal source for energy volatility positioning, built on data that moves independently of market prices.

Research Access

All three commodities. Daily pre-market classification. Active research validation in progress.

All three commodities. Active research.

Request Research Access

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtested 2000-2024. 2025 results are live out-of-sample (Jan 2025 to Feb 2026, zero parameter adjustments). Terms.