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MINDFORGE INTELLIGENCE
Market Risk Classifier

THE POSITIONING
EDGE

Since 2012, VIX has spiked 67 times while this system classified STABLE. The scare passed 41 of 44 times.

The year-by-year record is inside. So is what happens to SPX after the system says hold.

Backtest window: 1990-2025 + 2025 OOS • Median VIX (STABLE): ~14 • Research use only. Not investment advice. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

FOR INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH ONLY • MINDFORGE.TECH

PROOFTHE 13-YEAR RECORD
41 of 44 correct across 13 years. Three misses: 2015, 2016, 2020.41 of 44 correct across 13 years. Three misses: 2015, 2016, 2020.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods
PROOFIRAN SHOCK, MARCH 2026 (LIVE PRODUCTION)
The fund that moves first captures the recovery.The fund that moves first captures the recovery.
The call
The system classified STABLE on March 31, 2026, while VIX was still at 25.25. Conventional signals said stay defensive.
What happened next
SPX recovered 254 points over the next 5 trading days. VIX dropped from 25.25 to 21.04.
The positioning edge
On a $500M equity book, 254 points of SPX participation is approximately $19.5M of recovery captured. A fund following conventional signals would have stayed defensive and missed this move.
Why it matters
The system uses data independent of price. On March 31, VIX was elevated and the market was still nervous. The system saw that the underlying conditions had resolved. The fund that trusted it moved first.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods
PROOFTHE FORWARD PATH
What happens to SPX after the system says hold.What happens to SPX after the system says hold.
What this shows
The median S&P 500 path over the 20 trading days after VIX spiked and the system held STABLE. The green line is the median. The shaded band is the 25th to 75th percentile range.
The median outcome
SPX gained a median +1.9% over 20 trading days. VIX fell back 75% of the time. The fund that held captured this. The fund that sold at the scare paid the round-trip and bought back higher.
The frequency
This decision point comes roughly 5.2 times per year. Each one is a sell-or-hold moment where the system provides an independent read.
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods
COMPARISONTHE POSITIONING DIFFERENCE
WITH MRC
✓ Hold through false scares with an independent signal backing the decision
✓ Re-enter risk assets on the STABLE call, before VIX confirms
✓ Know when to stay defensive because the system agrees conditions are real
✓ Every call is on the public record with its outcome
WITHOUT MRC
✗ Sell into scares that turn out to be false, buy back higher
✗ Wait for VIX to confirm recovery, miss the first move
✗ Every conventional signal watches the same price data as everyone else
✗ No independent read on whether the cause is transient or structural
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods
MRC provides regime classification. Sizing decisions remain with portfolio management and risk governance.
ACCESSPILOT

VERIFY IT LIVE

60 Days. Full Access.

INCLUDES
  • • Daily classification via email or API
  • • 5+ year historical classification access
QUALIFICATION

Institutional 60-day pilot for qualified research teams.

RESTRICTED TO INSTITUTIONAL USE
STABLE + CRISIS
This brief: the positioning edge from knowing which scares are real and which are not.
To see how the system performs during actual crises, see The Crisis Classification Brief.
PHONE

+1 (646) 847-9889

EMAIL

research@mindforge.tech

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser.
mindforge.tech/terms | mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods

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Research use only • Not investment advice • Past performance ≠ future results • Full terms

Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance ≠ future results. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms · Methods