CVD · Ag-Commodity Vol Regime Suite
A daily forecast for
commodity price moves.
Being validated now.
A daily research forecast that flags when corn, wheat, KC-wheat, or coffee prices may move sharply — up to 20 trading days ahead — built on data your competitors don't have. We are accumulating a clean, independently-scored track record before we make any performance claim. This page is a research preview, not a sales claim.
enough independent events to test
corn · wheat · KC-wheat · coffee
every U.S. trading day
Shadow validation began 2026-05-01. We do not yet have enough independent, non-overlapping events to distinguish these forecasts from chance, so we make no hit-rate or precision claim. Research use only — not investment advice.
See today's call on each commodity↓One email.
Every morning at 07:30.
Every U.S. trading day at 07:30 AM ET, you get a one-page email like this. It tells you which commodities we think are about to move (green — ELEVATED), which are setting up but haven't triggered yet (yellow — WATCHING), and which are calm (white — QUIET). For each forecast we show what we expect, what we've gotten right so far, and what your desk should consider doing.
The sample below is a real format. Numbers shown are from our live track record since 2026-05-01.
We see the move coming up to 20 trading days before the options market starts pricing it.
We look at data
nobody else trades on.
Bloomberg terminals, trader-positioning reports, options-flow services, weather-model subscriptions. Useful tools. But every one of them tells you what's happening now or what already happened. None of them see the next move coming.
- ✗ Trader-positioning reports show who's long or short. Not what's about to move.
- ✗ Options-flow tells you what big counterparties are betting on. Not whether those bets pay off.
- ✗ Weather models tell you when crops might fail. Not when prices will react.
- ✗ Bloomberg analytics tell you how the market is currently pricing risk. Not whether that pricing is right.
A daily forecast built on space weather data. Yes, really. Federal Reserve economists (Krivelyova & Robotti, 2003) independently published peer-reviewed research showing that space weather activity predicts market behavior. We were the first firm to systematize it for commodity prices. The forecast tells you 20 trading days ahead what your existing tools will only confirm on the day.
- ✓ Uses space weather telemetry — data nobody else has and competitors can't replicate
- ✓ Built and tested on multi-decade historical data (2012–2024)
- ✓ Now in live validation — scored daily under an independent, antagonism-grade methodology
- ✓ In your inbox by 07:30 AM ET every U.S. trading day
We make no performance claim until the live record clears a real significance bar.
Five forecasts.
Updated every weekday.
ELEVATED = our model says a move is coming in this commodity within 20 trading days. WATCHING = conditions are building but the trigger hasn't fired yet. QUIET = no alert, nothing happening.
Snapshot as of 2026-06-03. State updates daily. Our fifth forecast (Coffee volatility) is currently 1 right, 2 wrong — we're showing it for transparency and don't pitch it as a standalone product yet.
What you do with the forecast.
The examples below are illustrative of how the forecast would be used IF its skill is confirmed in validation. They describe intended use, not proven results.
A 5%+ drop in coffee prices wipes 7-figures off the value of the green coffee you've already bought. Most roasters protect against this by paying for downside cover every day of the year — even on days nothing's happening. The aim of our forecast is to flag which days a drop is more likely, so you can concentrate protection there and skip the quiet days. (Forecast skill is still being validated — this is the intended use, not a proven result.)
If your desk spends roughly $1M a year on options insurance against corn-price shocks, you're paying every single day even though prices only move on 20–30% of them. Our forecast tells you which days are which. Pay for insurance on the loud days. Skip the quiet ones. Bundled across corn + wheat + coffee.
Funds that trade commodity volatility — long vol when they expect big moves, short when they expect calm — bleed money on the 60–70% of days that turn out quiet. Our forecast cuts that idle spend. Spend more efficiently on the days the model flags. Particularly powerful for cross-commodity strategies (e.g. corn vs. wheat spread).
Pilot the research data.
60 days of daily forecasts, validated against your own book.
60-Day Research Pilot
- The forecasts you choose (corn, wheat, KC-wheat, coffee, coffee vol)
- Daily email at 07:30 ET
- Full history of past forecasts
- API delivery available
Pricing and commercial terms are discussed after the pilot.
- Direct research access
- Roadmap visibility and feedback channel
- Buyer-segment-diversified seats (roaster / merchant / vol fund / ethanol+CPG / wildcard)
Eligibility: institutions under $5B AUM · Closed once filled
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Mindforge Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser. Live track record starts 2026-05-01; sample sizes are small (2 to 15 calls per forecast). Full terms at mindforge.tech/terms.