CVD · Ag-Commodity Vol Regime Suite
A daily forecast for
commodity price moves.
Being validated now.
A daily research forecast that flags when corn, wheat, KC-wheat, or coffee prices may move sharply — up to 20 trading days ahead — built on data your competitors don't have. We are accumulating a clean, independently-scored track record before we make any performance claim. This page is a research preview, not a sales claim.
enough independent events to test
corn · wheat · KC-wheat · coffee
every U.S. trading day
Shadow validation began 2026-05-01. We do not yet have enough independent, non-overlapping events to distinguish these forecasts from chance, so we make no hit-rate or precision claim. Research use only — not investment advice.
See today's call on each commodity↓One email.
Every morning at 07:30.
Every U.S. trading day at 07:30 AM ET, you get a one-page email like this. It tells you which commodities we think are about to move (green — ELEVATED), which are setting up but haven't triggered yet (yellow — WATCHING), and which are calm (white — QUIET). For each forecast we show what we expect, what we've gotten right so far, and what your desk should consider doing.
The sample below is a real format. Numbers shown are from our live track record since 2026-05-01.
We see the move coming up to 20 trading days before the options market starts pricing it.
We look at data
nobody else trades on.
Bloomberg terminals, trader-positioning reports, options-flow services, weather-model subscriptions. Useful tools. But every one of them tells you what's happening now or what already happened. None of them see the next move coming.
- ✗ Trader-positioning reports show who's long or short. Not what's about to move.
- ✗ Options-flow tells you what big counterparties are betting on. Not whether those bets pay off.
- ✗ Weather models tell you when crops might fail. Not when prices will react.
- ✗ Bloomberg analytics tell you how the market is currently pricing risk. Not whether that pricing is right.
A daily forecast built on solar and geomagnetic data. Yes, really. Federal Reserve economists (Krivelyova & Robotti, 2003) independently published peer-reviewed research showing that solar activity predicts market behavior. We were the first firm to systematize it for commodity prices. The forecast tells you 20 trading days ahead what your existing tools will only confirm on the day.
- ✓ Uses solar and geomagnetic data — data nobody else has and competitors can't replicate
- ✓ Built and tested on multi-decade historical data (2012–2024)
- ✓ Now in live validation — scored daily under an independent, antagonism-grade methodology
- ✓ In your inbox by 07:30 AM ET every U.S. trading day
We make no performance claim until the live record clears a real significance bar.
Five forecasts.
Updated every weekday.
ELEVATED = our model says a move is coming in this commodity within 20 trading days. WATCHING = conditions are building but the trigger hasn't fired yet. QUIET = no alert, nothing happening.
Snapshot as of 2026-06-03. State updates daily. Our fifth forecast (Coffee volatility) is currently 1 right, 2 wrong — we're showing it for transparency and don't pitch it as a standalone product yet.
What you do with the forecast.
The dollar figures below are illustrative examples of how the forecast would be used IF its skill is confirmed in validation. They are modeled, not realized savings, and assume the forecast works.
A 5%+ drop in coffee prices wipes 7-figures off the value of the green coffee you've already bought. Most roasters protect against this by paying for downside cover every day of the year — even on days nothing's happening. The aim of our forecast is to flag which days a drop is more likely, so you can concentrate protection there and skip the quiet days. (Forecast skill is still being validated — this is the intended use, not a proven result.)
pays back the $24K subscription in 6 months
If your desk spends roughly $1M a year on options insurance against corn-price shocks, you're paying every single day even though prices only move on 20–30% of them. Our forecast tells you which days are which. Pay for insurance on the loud days. Skip the quiet ones. Bundled across corn + wheat + coffee.
$96K subscription pays back in 10 weeks
Funds that trade commodity volatility — long vol when they expect big moves, short when they expect calm — bleed money on the 60–70% of days that turn out quiet. Our forecast cuts that idle spend. Spend more efficiently on the days the model flags. Particularly powerful for cross-commodity strategies (e.g. corn vs. wheat spread).
~4× payback on a $48K subscription
Stop paying for insurance
every single day.
60–75% of trading days are quiet. Nothing big happens. But if your desk runs a fixed annual budget for price-protection options — say $1M a year — you're paying for that protection every single one of those quiet days. The premium just expires worthless.
Our forecast tells you which days are likely to be loud and which are likely to be quiet. Spend your insurance budget on the loud days. Skip the quiet ones. Same protection on the days that matter. $200K+ less spent on the days that don't.
modeled example, IF the forecast is validated · not a realized result
Start with a free trial.
30 days of daily forecasts at no charge. Validate against your own book before any commitment. If you keep it, year 1 of any tier is 50% off.
Tier 1 — Standard
- One forecast of your choice (corn, wheat, KC-wheat, or coffee)
- Daily email at 07:30 ET
- Full history of past forecasts
- Email support
Tier 3 — Bundle
- All 5 forecasts (corn, wheat, KC-wheat, coffee, coffee vol)
- Live alerts as conditions change (not just daily)
- Web dashboard with running track record
- API delivery (we plug into your existing systems)
- Two review calls per month
Platform
- Deployment across multiple desks at one firm
- Firm-wide licensing (no per-seat charges)
- Custom API and integration with your internal systems
- Custom forecast configurations
- Direct founder access
- Today's rate held until 2028
- Direct research access
- Roadmap visibility and feedback channel
- Buyer-segment-diversified seats (roaster / merchant / vol fund / ethanol+CPG / wildcard)
Three-year term, paid at signing · Eligibility: institutions under $5B AUM · Closed once filled
Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Mindforge Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser. Live track record starts 2026-05-01; sample sizes are small (2 to 15 calls per forecast). Full terms at mindforge.tech/terms.