2026 Iran Shock
Iran tensions triggered a month-long equity selloff.
MRC classified every shift before the open, then called the bottom.
28 trading days
All pre-market
Before VIX normalized
Same system validated on 2012-2024, applied unmodified.
Classification, not prediction. Research use only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SPX + VIX vs. MRC Risk Shapes
What MRC Did
Every Classification
| Alert Date | State | SPX | VIX | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27 | STABLE | 6,854 | 19.86 | Baseline |
| Mar 4 | SHIFTING | 6,824 | 23.57 | -480 pts to trough |
| Pre-market. VIX 23 on the close MRC used — moved to 29 within 2 sessions | ||||
| Mar 6 | ELEVATED | 6,768 | 23.75 | -95 pts next 4d |
| Pre-market. Sustained selling. VIX above 24 for 6 consecutive sessions | ||||
| Mar 13 | SHIFTING | 6,673 | 27.29 | -166 pts next 5d |
| Pre-market. Conditions transitional. SHOCK episode followed. | ||||
| Mar 21 | SHOCK | 6,506 | 26.78 | SPX to 6,344 trough |
| Delivered Sat pre-market, effective Mon Mar 23. VIX peaked at 31.05 on Mar 27. | ||||
| Mar 25 | SHIFTING | 6,556 | 26.95 | -213 pts to trough |
| Pre-market. Final leg down before reversal. | ||||
| Mar 31 | RESOLVED | 6,529 | 30.61 | +254 pts next 5d |
| Pre-market. VIX fell to 21. SPX recovered to 6,783 | ||||
Alert delivery dates. SPX and VIX are from Mindforge's production market data feed at time of classification unless otherwise noted. All delivered pre-market by 07:30 ET.
Why It Matters
FAQ
Did Mindforge predict the Iran crisis?
No. Mindforge classifies environmental conditions, it does not predict geopolitical events. Each state transition was delivered pre-market by 07:30 ET based on environmental indices. Classification is not prediction.
Why didn't this reach CRISIS?
Environmental indices did not reach CRISIS thresholds. The system correctly reflected the severity: elevated but not crisis-grade. VIX peaked at 31.05, well below the 60+ levels seen in CRISIS episodes like COVID or August 2024.
Is this out-of-sample?
Yes. All 2026 data is out-of-sample. The same rules validated on 2012-2024 were applied without modification to real-time data.
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Research use only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 2026 data is out-of-sample. Mindforge is not a registered investment adviser. Full terms: mindforge.tech/terms | Methodology: mindforge.tech/validation-and-methods